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CHELSEA vs CRYSTAL PALACE SURE PREDICTION

A detailed Chelsea vs Crystal Palace sure prediction with expert opinion, H2H matches, statistical analysis for this England, Premier League match on 14-Aug-2021

Chelsea

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DATE:

14 August 2021 at 17:00:00

Crystal Palace

COUNTRY:

England

LEAGUE

Premier League

TIME:

5:00 PM

Brescia logo.png

1X2 PREDICTION

HOME WIN:

55%

AVR. ODDS:

1.26

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

DRAW:

22%

AVR. ODDS:

5.64

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

AWAY WIN:

22%

AVR. ODDS:

12.08

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

EXPERT TIPS FOR THIS MATCH

We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a gg in this Chelsea vs Crystal Palace match. The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 55.69% probability for a GG outcome. 


The ELO Ratings model came through with a 58.43% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 60.18% chance for a gg outcome. This Chelsea vs Crystal Palace match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. 


Keep reading to find them all. To find if the Gg bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied GG bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 2.41 with an implied bookmaker probability of 41.49%. 



The calculated Surebet probability for the Gg outcome for this Chelsea vs Crystal Palace match is 58.10%, meaning this bet is a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may gain expected value by 16.60%Expected Value, EV(GG), for a GG result for this Chelsea vs Crystal Palace match is calculated as follows: Let P(GG) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. 



Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(GG) * 100* 2.41 where 2.41 are the decimal odds for this outcome. Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a GG for Chelsea vs Crystal Palace, EV(GG) to be 58.10% * 100 * 2.41, which translates to 98.11. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.


Historical data, H2H matches and results from similar and related past matches, Surebet GG prediction systems have all agreed that both teams will be able to score in this match. Both Chelsea and Crystal Palace have good striking and have equally vulnerable defenses. 


I do not forsee a NG outcome for this game. The GG rediction for this game is both teams to score at leat one goal in this game.

CHELSEA vs CRYSTAL PALACE SURE PREDICTION

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GG/NG(BTTS) PREDICTION

GG(BTTS):

58%

AVR. ODDS:

2.41

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

NO GOAL:

AVR. ODDS:

41%

1.5

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

OVER/UNDER 1.5 GOALS PREDICTION

OVER 1.5:

40%

AVR. ODDS:

1.14

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

UNDER 1.5:

19%

AVR. ODDS:

3.6

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS PREDICTION

OVER 2.5:

59%

AVR. ODDS:

1.74

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

UNDER 2.5:

AVR. ODDS:

VALUEBET?

40%

1.98

Not a Value Bet

OVER/UNDER 3.5 GOALS PREDICTION

OVER 3.5:

37%

AVR. ODDS:

3.05

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

UNDER 3.5:

62%

AVR. ODDS:

1.48

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

MATCH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS

CHELSEA VS CRYSTAL PALACE LATEST HEAD TO HEAD MATCHES

Crystal Palace and Chelsea have met 6 times recently since 11-Apr-2018. Below is a breakdown of those matches and the results. Note that these matches will play a big role in the Crystal Palace vs Chelsea prediction.
04-Oct-2021 - Crystal Palace [1 : 4] Chelsea
10-Mar-2020 - Chelsea [4 : 0] Crystal Palace
07-Jul-2020 - Crystal Palace [2 : 3] Chelsea
11-Sep-2019 - Chelsea [2 : 0] Crystal Palace
30/12/18 - Crystal Palace [0 : 1] Chelsea
11-Apr-2018 - Chelsea [3 : 1] Crystal Palace

CHELSEA LAST 10 MATCHES

Below are Chelsea's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Chelsea drew with Tottenham (2-2) on 08-Apr-2021
Then Arsenal lost to Chelsea (1-2) on 08-Jan-2021
Chelsea won against Bournemouth (2-1) on 27/07/21
Not surprisingly Man City lost to Chelsea (0-1) on 29/05/21
Aston Villa won against Chelsea (2-1) on 23/05/21
Chelsea won against Leicester (2-1) on 18/05/21
Then Chelsea lost to Leicester (0-1) on 15/05/21
Chelsea lost to Arsenal (0-1) on 05-Dec-2021
Man City lost to Chelsea (1-2) on 05-Aug-2021
In the earliest match listed here Chelsea won against Real Madrid (2-0) on 05-May-2021

RECENT MATCHES - AWAY TEAM

Below are Crystal Palace's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Crystal Palace won against Watford (3-1) on 08-Jul-2021
Reading lost to Crystal Palace (1-3) on 31/07/21
Then Crystal Palace drew with Charlton (2-2) on 27/07/21
Ipswich lost to Crystal Palace (0-1) on 24/07/21
Walsall lost to Crystal Palace (0-1) on 17/07/21
Then Liverpool won against Crystal Palace (2-0) on 23/05/21
Crystal Palace lost to Arsenal (1-3) on 19/05/21
Crystal Palace won against Aston Villa (3-2) on 16/05/21
Once more Southampton won against Crystal Palace (3-1) on 05-Nov-2021
Sheffield lost to Crystal Palace (0-2) on 05-Aug-2021

CHELSEA'S POSITION

No position listed

CRYSTAL PALACE'S POSITION

No position listed

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