NANTES vs LYON SURE PREDICTION
A detailed Nantes vs Lyon sure prediction with expert opinion, H2H matches, statistical analysis for this France, Ligue 1 match on 27-Aug-2021
Nantes
DATE:
27 August 2021 at 22:00:00
Lyon
COUNTRY:
France
LEAGUE
Ligue 1
TIME:
10:00 PM
1X2 PREDICTION
HOME WIN:
27%
AVR. ODDS:
4.2
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
DRAW:
25%
AVR. ODDS:
3.9
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
AWAY WIN:
48%
AVR. ODDS:
1.77
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
EXPERT TIPS FOR THIS MATCH
We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a away win in this Nantes vs Lyon match. The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 53.90% probability for a Away Win outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 47.57% probability for the same outccome.
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The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 41.73% chance for a away win outcome. This Nantes vs Lyon match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all. To find if the Away Win bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied Away Win bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.77 with an implied bookmaker probability of 56.50%.
The calculated Surebet probability for the Away Win outcome for this Nantes vs Lyon match is 47.73%, meaning this bet is not a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may be about to lose expected value by -8.77%Expected Value, EV(Away Win), for a Away Win result for this Nantes vs Lyon match is calculated as follows: Let P(Away Win) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet.
Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(Away Win) * 100* 1.77 where 1.77 are the decimal odds for this outcome. Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a Away Win for Nantes vs Lyon, EV(Away Win) to be 47.73% * 100 * 1.77, which translates to 32.21. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.
Lyon is expected to outperform Nantes in this match. Home advantage may not help Nantes in this game. With odds of 1.77 you stand to win a fairly good amount from this tip. This is the best sure bet prediction for this match.
Note that you should also consider other betting markets other than 1X2 predictions or bets. Asian handicaps and European handicaps, for instance, can make you better profits from a match like this.
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GG/NG(BTTS) PREDICTION
GG(BTTS):
51%
AVR. ODDS:
1.63
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
NO GOAL:
AVR. ODDS:
48%
2.14
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 1.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 1.5:
40%
AVR. ODDS:
1.07
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
UNDER 1.5:
26%
AVR. ODDS:
3.87
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 2.5:
49%
AVR. ODDS:
1.64
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
UNDER 2.5:
AVR. ODDS:
VALUEBET?
51%
2.13
Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 3.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 3.5:
27%
AVR. ODDS:
2.88
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
UNDER 3.5:
73%
AVR. ODDS:
1.59
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
MATCH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS
NANTES VS LYON LATEST HEAD TO HEAD MATCHES
Nantes and Lyon have met 6 times recently since 29/09/18. Below is a breakdown of those matches and the results. Note that these matches will play a big role in the Nantes vs Lyon prediction.
18/04/21 - Nantes [1 : 2] Lyon
23/12/20 - Lyon [3 : 0] Nantes
18/01/20 - Nantes [3 : 4] Lyon
28/09/19 - Lyon [0 : 1] Nantes
04-Dec-2019 - Nantes [2 : 1] Lyon
29/09/18 - Lyon [1 : 1] Nantes
NANTES LAST 10 MATCHES
Below are Nantes's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Stade Rennes won against Nantes (1-0) on 22/08/21
Then Nantes won against Metz (2-0) on 15/08/21
Monaco drew with Nantes (1-1) on 08-Jun-2021
Not surprisingly Nantes lost to Clermont Foot (1-2) on 31/07/21
Nantes lost to Lorient (0-1) on 28/07/21
Stade Brest 29 lost to Nantes (1-3) on 24/07/21
Then Nantes lost to Niort (0-1) on 18/07/21
Nantes lost to Caen (0-1) on 17/07/21
Nantes won against Guingamp (1-0) on 14/07/21
In the earliest match listed here Nantes lost to Toulouse (0-1) on 30/05/21
RECENT MATCHES - AWAY TEAM
Below are Lyon's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Lyon drew with Clermont Foot (3-3) on 22/08/21
Angers won against Lyon (3-0) on 15/08/21
Then Lyon drew with Stade Brest 29 (1-1) on 08-Jul-2021
Porto won against Lyon (5-3) on 31/07/21
Sporting Lisbon won against Lyon (3-2) on 25/07/21
Then Villarreal drew with Lyon (2-2) on 22/07/21
Lyon won against Wolfsburg (4-1) on 17/07/21
Lyon won against Villefranche (2-0) on 17/07/21
Once more Lyon won against Bourg-En-Bresse (5-1) on 07-Oct-2021
Lyon lost to Nice (2-3) on 23/05/21
NANTES'S POSITION
Nantes is in position 9 with 4 points from 3 matches. They are below Marseille who have 4 points and above Lorient who have 4 points.
have scored 3 goals and conceded 2 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of 1 goals this season.
LYON'S POSITION
Lyon is in position 16 with 2 points from 3 matches. They are below Bordeaux who have 2 points and above Lille who have 2 points.
Lyon have scored 4 goals and conceded 7 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of -3 goals this season.
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