European Handicap Predictions & Tips
Euro Handicap predictions or tips are forecasts of betting outcomes where two teams with a huge difference in winning probabilities are involved and thus the stronger team has to win by more than one goal to be considered the winner. For instance, a Euro Handicap of 2 goals means that the stronger team has to win with at least 3 goals to be considered to have won the match.
The term handicap therefore conveniently means that the weaker team is considered to be handicapped by a certain number of goals in the face of the stronger team. The European handicap betting market is more profitable than the conventional 1X2 market since it comes with enhanced odds for the outcomes.
They are also easier to understand but less attractive than the Asian Handicap predictions which stand out as the most preferred by professional bettors.
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MORE ABOUT EURO HANDICAP PREDICTIONS - ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW
Euro handicap predictions have grown in popularity among especially professional bettors. The reason for the rise in popularity is due to 2 facts:
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They usually come with higher odds than in traditional betting markets
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EURO handicaps provide really good value bets that prove profitable most of the time
What are Euro handicaps?
Euro handicaps is a betting market that allows you to place bets on outcomes that have lower odds originally but enhanced due to handicap being through into the betting mix. This simply means that the odds of Euro handicapped events are modified to reflect modification on the outcome.
This usually happens when an event has a higher than normal probability of coming true in a match. When for instance a significantly stronger team is playing at home against an obviously weak team, the odds for the stronger team winning might not be as attractive to you.
You might, therefore, decide to bet on the home team in such a way that the away team is given a goal advantage of say 2 goals before the match even starts. This, therefore, means that you only win if your favorite team wins with more than 2 goals, otherwise, you lose.
The odds accompanying such an event are significantly higher than the original odds.
WHERE ARE EURO HANDICAPS USED?
Originally, the Euro handicaps were meant to boost odds for highly likely events. However, they have since evolved to accommodate every soccer event. This means even for a game played by teams with almost similar strengths will still have Euro handicap betting markets for you to use. The good news is that for such matches, the odds are even higher.
The Euro handicaps might have originated in Europe but have been adopted worldwide and you can place bets on them from whichever country you are.
There are no restrictions as to what type of game, matches or scenarios the Euro handicap can be used. This, therefore, means that you can place Euro handicap predictions for matches that are playing within or outside Europe where they originally came from.
EXAMPLES OF EURO HANDICAPS
In this section, I have explained for you a real-time example of Euro handicaps.
Let us consider a match playing today on 29th July 2019 between Celtic vs St. Johnstone. The odds for the match are listed below:
Home win: 1.25
Draw: 5.67
Away win: 13.23
Clearly, the odds indicate that Celtic is the very favorite team in this match. The odds are however disgustingly low. At less than 1.3, it almost makes no sense to bet on a home win outcome for this match.
That is where Euro handicaps come in.
Past head to head matches between the teams shows that Celtic has been able to score up to more than 5 goals while St. Johnstone failed to score even a single goal in some cases as shown in the image below.
So what if, you decide to bet on Celtic to win this game with a goal difference of 2 goals? If you think that is a good idea, then welcome to the world of Euro handicaps.
A bet for Celtic to win with 2 goals or more is denoted as 1(0:2). This basically means that you are placing a bet on the home team (1) to win but the away team already has a goal advantage of 2, before the match.
You win your bet if Celtic wins with 3 goals or more. If Celtic wins with 1 or 2 goals, you lose your bet.
It is important to note that the odds of that bet are 2.5, which is significantly higher than 1.25 which was the original betting odds for Celtic winning the match. I bet you are now even more interested in these Euro handicap predictions. Keep reading to understand the important aspects of Euro handicaps.
LIST OF EURO HANDICAP NOTATIONS
1(0:2)
This notation (like the example we saw above) means that you are predicting a home win even when the away team has a prior goal advantage of 2. You only win the Euro handicap prediction if the monme team wins with 3 or more goals. If the home team was with one or two games, or if the away team wins, you lose your bet.
1(0:1)
1(0:1) means predicting a win for the home team with more than one goal. You win the bet if the home team wins with 2 goals or more. If the teams draw, the away team wins or the home team wins with 1 goal then you lose the Euro handicap bet.
1(1:0)
1(1:0) is a Euro handicap prediction that the home team will win the match given a goal advantage of 1 goal or if the match ends in a draw. Giving a goal advantage for the stronger team leads to drastically lower odds, like in our example above. If a team is strongly expected to win a match in the first place, adding a goal advantage on their favour logically means even lower odds. In our example above, giving Celtic a goal advantage reduces the odds to 1.02 which is at the extreme low end of odds.
X(0:2)
This kind of Euro handicap prediction means that the home team will score 2 goals more than the away team. If the home team wins with more than 2 goals or if the away team wins with any number of goals, then you lose the Euro handicap bet.
X(0:1)
This prediction means that the home team will win with exactly one goal more than the away team. With the away team already having a goal advantage of 1, it will, therefore, technical end in a draw. You win your bet if the home team wins with exactly one goal, otherwise, you lose the bet. As you can see, the odds for the drawing part of the Euro handicap predictions carry the highest odds on average, excluding the outlier odds at the bottom of the list.
X(1:0)
X(1:0) Euro handicap lets you win the bet if the away team wins with exactly 1 goal. If the teams draw or if the home team wins then you lose your bet.
2(0:2)
In this case, you win the Euro handicap predictions bet if the away team wins with more than 2 goals. If the home team wins, the game ends in a draw or if the away team wins with two goals or one goal then you lose the bet.
2(0:1)
This allows you to win if the away team wins with any number of goals or if the match ends in a draw. You lose your bet if the home team wins with any number of goals.
2(1:0)
2(1:0) means you win the bet if the away team wins with more than 1 goal. If the match ends in a draw or if the home team wins then you lose the bet.
MATHEMATICAL AND SCIENTIFIC EURO HANDICAP PREDICTION
If there is an area that you really need mathematical or scientific analysis of bets in is the Euro handicaps and Asian handicaps9we have covered them in a separate article). This is because you might not be able to see with layman's eyes the factors hiding behind the handicap types.
With good knowledge of spreadsheets however, the task can be simplified.
I am going to show you how to determine a good Euro or Asian handicap prediction for any match.
Step 1: Find the average number of goals scored by the involved teams for their last 20 or more matches
Step 2: Use a Poisson distribution model to determine the probabilities for each possible outcome
Step 3: Generate the probabilities of the Euro handicap events
Step 4: Compare the probabilities for the Euro handicaps with the inverse of odds
Step 5: Make the best, scientifically proven Euro handicaps prediction
Step 1: Find the average number of goals scored by the involved teams for their last 20 or more matches
This is the first step towards making sensible Euro predictions. Note that the average number of goals for a team for similar matches is a very good indicator of their scoring and defending abilities.
To illustrate this process we shall continue using the Celtic vs St. Johnstone match.
According to the Surebet databases, Celtic have averaged 2.32 goals over several seasons while playing at home. St Johnstone on the other and have averaged 1.1 goals while playing away, as they are doing in this match whose European handicap predictions we are doing as an example.
Using those mean averages as the (λ) we generate the following probabilities:
The table clearly shows that St Johnstone has higher probabilities of scoring lower numbers of goals than Celtic. That is exactly what we expected. However, the next steps are the ones to provide perspective as to how much more goals Celtic are capable of than St Johnstone because that is exactly what we need to make informed Euro handicap predictions for this match.
Step 2: Use a Poisson distribution model to determine the probabilities for each possible outcome
Having determined the probability distribution, it is time to determine the probabilities for specific outcomes using joint probabilities. Please note that you should cap the number of goals by one team at 6 to make your work easier.
Using the joint distribution technique we get the probabilities of possible outcomes as follows:
This information is however just a step towards what we want. It can not provide insights into Euro handicapped predictions.
Step 3: Generate the probabilities of the Euro handicap events
The next step is to generate the probabilities of the 9 Euro handicap predictions for this game, To do this, you have to insert spreadsheet formulae such that they add up the probabilities that qualify for a certain set of conditions outlined in a Euro handicap notation.
If you need the Excel template that is used at Surebet I can share with you if you ask me to on the comment section.
Using that method, you will end up with a simple table like this one:
As you can see, each Euro handicap prediction is accompanied by a corresponding probability of coming true based on our own analysis.
Step 4: Compare the probabilities for the Euro handicaps with the inverse of odds
Next, you need to convert the odds given by the bookmarker into probabilities so that you can compare them with this table to find value odds. Value odds are those events whose chances the bookmakers have underestimated thereby giving higher odds than expected.
Below is the resulting table with the Euro predictions, the probabilities of each as calculated by Surebet systems, the given odds and the corresponding probabilities as predicted by bookmakers through the odds.
Whenever you see the probability of the bookmaker exceeding that of Surebet, then know that is a bet that is not worth it. That’s because the bookmaker has given lower odds than they should, given the risk. In a reverse case though, you should consider those because the bookmaker has underestimated the chances of that outcome and therefore giving you a value bet.
For instance, in the table above, the bookmaker has given unfairly low odds for all but 2(0:2) and 2(0:1). These 2 are our value bets. Essentially, the first one means that you win if the home team fails to win with more than 2 goals while the second means the same thing but with 2 goals as the minimum. Given that 4 of the last 6 head to head matches between the two teams ended with Celtic winning with less than 3 goals, it, therefore, is right to predict that will be the case in this match.
The best Surebet Euro handicap prediction, therefore, is 2(0:2) since it has sensible odds of 2.15 and a probability of 57%.
CONCLUSION
The process above may seem long and hard, but it is very easy when using sure bet prediction templates and software. You can now be able to make accurate and very profitable Euro handicap predictions. If you habve any comments or questions feel free to ask in the comment section below.