ARSENAL vs ASTON VILLA GG SUREBET PREDICTION
A detailed Rangers Fc vs Brondby If sure prediction with expert opinion, H2H matches, statistical analysis for this International Clubs, UEFA Europa League match on 22-Oct-21
Arsenal
DATE:
22 October 2021 at 22:00:00
Aston Villa
COUNTRY:
England
LEAGUE
Premier League
TIME:
10:00 PM
1X2 PREDICTION
HOME WIN:
64%
AVR. ODDS:
1.93
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
DRAW:
19%
AVR. ODDS:
3.59
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
AWAY WIN:
17%
AVR. ODDS:
3.88
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
EXPERT TIPS FOR THIS MATCH
All 3 major Surebet prediction models have indicated a possible gg in this Arsenal vs Aston Villa match. Poisson prediction model shows there is a 59.83% chance for the outcome while the ELO Ratings model shows a 58.63% chance for the same.
Finally, 56.94% of the Monte Carlo simulation runs for this match resulted in gg. This pretty much consolidates the prediction of a gg in this game. The odds for Gg outcome on major betting sites are, on average, 1.73 with an implied bookmaker probability of 57.80%.
Considering that the surebet probability for the GG outcome for this Arsenal vs Aston Villa match is 58.47%, then this bet is a value bet. If you play this bet then you you gain expected value by 0.66%The expected value for a GG prediction is denoted as EV(GG) and is calculated by multiplying the amount of stake by the odds and again by the probability of winning then subtracting the result of multiplying the stake and the probability of losing.
By using 100 as your sample stake, by calculating the EV as explained, we get the expected value for a GG in this Arsenal vs Aston Villa match is 59.61 which is positive and therefore a good bet.
Given historical data, head to head matches and results from similar past matches, Surebet prediction systems and expert opinion have all converged on the conclusion that both teams will be able to score in this match, therefore validating a GG prediction (BTTS).
Both Arsenal and Aston Villa have good strikers and have equally vulnerable defenses. It is quite unlikely that any of them will fail to score in this game.
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GG/NG(BTTS) PREDICTION
GG(BTTS):
58%
AVR. ODDS:
1.73
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
NO GOAL:
AVR. ODDS:
41%
1.99
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 1.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 1.5:
40%
AVR. ODDS:
1.17
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
UNDER 1.5:
15%
AVR. ODDS:
3.47
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 2.5:
64%
AVR. ODDS:
1.79
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
UNDER 2.5:
AVR. ODDS:
VALUEBET?
35%
1.91
Not a Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 3.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 3.5:
43%
AVR. ODDS:
3.14
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
UNDER 3.5:
57%
AVR. ODDS:
1.43
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
MATCH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS
ARSENAL VS ASTON VILLA LATEST HEAD TO HEAD MATCHES
Aston Villa and Arsenal have met 6 times recently since 13/12/15. Below is a breakdown of those matches and the results. Note that these matches will play a big role in the Aston Villa vs Arsenal prediction.
02-Jun-2021 - Aston Villa [1 : 0] Arsenal
11-Aug-2020 - Arsenal [0 : 3] Aston Villa
21/07/20 - Aston Villa [1 : 0] Arsenal
22/09/19 - Arsenal [3 : 2] Aston Villa
15/05/16 - Arsenal [4 : 0] Aston Villa
13/12/15 - Aston Villa [0 : 2] Arsenal
ARSENAL LAST 10 MATCHES
Below are Arsenal's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Arsenal drew with Crystal Palace (2-2) on 18/10/21
Then Brighton drew with Arsenal (0-0) on 10-Feb-2021
Arsenal won against Tottenham (3-1) on 26/09/21
Not surprisingly Arsenal won against Wimbledon (3-0) on 22/09/21
Burnley lost to Arsenal (0-1) on 18/09/21
Arsenal won against Norwich (1-0) on 09-Nov-2021
Then Man City won against Arsenal (5-0) on 28/08/21
West Bromwich lost to Arsenal (0-6) on 25/08/21
Arsenal lost to Chelsea (0-2) on 22/08/21
In the earliest match listed here Brentford won against Arsenal (2-0) on 13/08/21
RECENT MATCHES - AWAY TEAM
Below are Aston Villa's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Aston Villa lost to Wolverhampton (2-3) on 16/10/21
Tottenham won against Aston Villa (2-1) on 10-Mar-2021
Then Man Utd lost to Aston Villa (0-1) on 25/09/21
Chelsea won against Aston Villa (4-3) on 22/09/21
Aston Villa won against Everton (3-0) on 18/09/21
Then Chelsea won against Aston Villa (3-0) on 09-Nov-2021
Aston Villa drew with Brentford (1-1) on 28/08/21
Barrow AFC lost to Aston Villa (0-6) on 24/08/21
Once more Aston Villa won against Newcastle (2-0) on 21/08/21
Watford won against Aston Villa (3-2) on 14/08/21
ARSENAL'S POSITION
Arsenal is in position 12 with 11 points from 8 matches. They are below Leicester who have 11 points and above who have points.
have scored 7 goals and conceded 12 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of -5 goals this season.
ASTON VILLA'S POSITION
Aston Villa is in position 13 with 10 points from 8 matches. They are below who have points and above Crystal Palace who have 8 points.
Aston Villa have scored 12 goals and conceded 12 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of 0 goals this season.
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