AVELLINO vs VIRTUS FRANCAVILLA SURE PREDICTION
A detailed Avellino vs Virtus Francavilla sure prediction with expert opinion, H2H matches, statistical analysis for this Italy, Lega Pro, Girone C match on 09-Oct-2021
Avellino
Virtus Francavilla
DATE:
8 October 2021 at 18:30:00
TIME:
6:30 PM
COUNTRY:
Italy
LEAGUE
Lega Pro, Girone C
1X2 PREDICTION
HOME WIN:
18%
AVR. ODDS:
1.66
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
DRAW:
19%
AVR. ODDS:
3.45
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
AWAY WIN:
61%
AVR. ODDS:
5.52
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
EXPERT TIPS FOR THIS MATCH
<p class="font_7">Surebet's experience, algorithms and expertise have all converged on a conclution that this will be a high scoring match. Matches with high expected goals, passes and shots on target usually end with over 2.5 goals. This match between Avellino and Virtus Francavilla is one of those. </p>
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<p class="font_7">The odds for over 2.5 are also relatively good at 2.4 This is an average bet with high Odds. Also check out Over/Under tips for half time on the half time tips page. We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a over 2.5 in this Avellino vs Virtus Francavilla match. The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 56.78% probability for a OVER 2.5 outcome. </p>
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<p class="font_7">The ELO Ratings model came through with a 66.74% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 73.99% chance for a over 2.5 outcome. This Avellino vs Virtus Francavilla match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all. </p>
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<p class="font_7">To find if the Over 2.5 bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied OVER 2.5 bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 2.4 with an implied bookmaker probability of 41.67%. The calculated Surebet probability for the Over 2.5 outcome for this Avellino vs Virtus Francavilla match is 65.83%, meaning this bet is a value bet. </p>
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<p class="font_7">In case you place this bet, you may gain expected value by 24.17%Expected Value, EV(OVER 2.5), for a OVER 2.5 result for this Avellino vs Virtus Francavilla match is calculated as follows: Let P(OVER 2.5) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(OVER 2.5) * 100* 2.4 where 2.4 are the decimal odds for this outcome. </p>
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<p class="font_7">Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a OVER 2.5 for Avellino vs Virtus Francavilla, EV(OVER 2.5) to be 65.83% * 100 * 2.4, which translates to 123.83. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.</p>
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GG/NG(BTTS) PREDICTION
GG(BTTS):
61%
AVR. ODDS:
2.34
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
NO GOAL:
37%
AVR. ODDS:
1.53
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 1.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 1.5:
40%
AVR. ODDS:
1.57
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
UNDER 1.5:
14%
AVR. ODDS:
2.75
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 2.5:
66%
AVR. ODDS:
2.4
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
UNDER 2.5:
32%
AVR. ODDS:
1.51
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 3.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 3.5:
45%
AVR. ODDS:
4.21
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
UNDER 3.5:
53%
AVR. ODDS:
1.13
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
MATCH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS
AVELLINO VS VIRTUS FRANCAVILLA LATEST HEAD TO HEAD MATCHES
Curently no head to head
AVELLINO LAST 10 MATCHES
Below are Avellino's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Monterosi won against Avellino (2-1) on 10-Mar-2021
Then Avellino drew with Catanzaro (0-0) on 30/09/21
Avellino won against Potenza (1-0) on 26/09/21
Not surprisingly Monopoli drew with Avellino (0-0) on 20/09/21
Avellino lost to Ancona-Matelica (0-1) on 15/09/21
Avellino drew with Latina (1-1) on 09-Dec-2021
Then Stabia drew with Avellino (0-0) on 09-Apr-2021
Avellino drew with Citta Di Campobasso (1-1) on 29/08/21
Ternana won against Avellino (4-3) on 08-Aug-2021
In the earliest match listed here Avellino lost to Padova (0-1) on 06-Sep-2021
RECENT MATCHES - AWAY TEAM
Below are Virtus Francavilla's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Francavilla drew with Taranto (0-0) on 10-Mar-2021
Potenza lost to Francavilla (0-1) on 29/09/21
Then Francavilla won against Monopoli (3-1) on 26/09/21
Messina won against Francavilla (1-0) on 19/09/21
Fidelis Andria won against Francavilla (2-1) on 15/09/21
Then Fidelis Andria lost to Francavilla (0-1) on 09-Dec-2021
Francavilla won against Vibonese (1-0) on 09-May-2021
Catanzaro won against Francavilla (3-1) on 29/08/21
Once more Francavilla won against Taranto (2-0) on 22/08/21
Francavilla lost to Palermo (1-3) on 05-Feb-2021
AVELLINO'S POSITION
No position listed
VIRTUS FRANCAVILLA'S POSITION
No position listed
AVELLINO'S BEST PLAYERS
Sure bet prediction, tips and even fixed matches all depend on the form of players. Below are Avellino's players that have the potential of shaping the predictions and results for this game:
Luca Gagliano - The Italy National Luca Gagliano has scored 1 goals in 6 matches and shot - foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The 0.19's average goals per match is 0.17.
Alberto Dossena - The Italy National Alberto Dossena has scored 1 goals in 6 matches and shot 1 foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The 0.15's average goals per match is 0.17.
Giuseppe Carriero - The Italy National Giuseppe Carriero has scored 1 goals in 6 matches and shot 1 foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The 0.33's average goals per match is 0.17.
Sonny D'Angelo - The Italy National Sonny D'Angelo has scored 1 goals in 7 matches and shot - foul kicks. He has scored 1 penalties. The midfielder's average goals per match is 0.14.
VIRTUS FRANCAVILLA'S BEST PLAYERS
The following Virtus Francavilla players are crucial in determining the results of this game:
Pasquale Maiorino - The Italy National Pasquale Maiorino has scored 3 goals in 7 matches and shot 1 foul kicks. He has scored 3 penalties. The midfielder's average goals per match is 0.43.
Danilo Giacinto Ventola - The Italy National Danilo Giacinto Ventola has scored 2 goals in 7 matches and shot 2 foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The forward's average goals per match is 0.29.
Tiziano Tulissi - The Italy National Tiziano Tulissi has scored 1 goals in 3 matches and shot 1 foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The forward's average goals per match is 0.33.
Elimelech Enyan - The Ghana National Elimelech Enyan has scored 1 goals in 6 matches and shot - foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The defender's average goals per match is 0.17.
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