HOME WIN TIPS After analysing all the data and compiling and comparing expert opinions on this Deportivo Madryn vs Club Atletico Guemes match, we are well convinced that Deportivo Madryn is in better form, better motivated and has proven in the past their ability to dominate this game against Club Atletico Guemes. The surebet prediction for this game is therefore a home win. Note that there might be even better tips you can bet on today if you can be bold enough to subscribe for VIP tips. Besides, you might want to check out the GG/NG tips given their ability to increase betting profits for many punters. We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a home win in this Deportivo Madryn vs Club Atletico Guemes match. The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 40.59% probability for a Home Win outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 47.31% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 51.42% chance for a home win outcome. This Deportivo Madryn vs Club Atletico Guemes match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all. To find if the Home Win bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied Home Win bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 2.21 with an implied bookmaker probability of 45.25%. The calculated Surebet probability for the Home Win outcome for this Deportivo Madryn vs Club Atletico Guemes match is 46.44%, meaning this bet is a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may gain expected value by 1.19%.. Expected Value, EV(Home Win), for a Home Win result for this Deportivo Madryn vs Club Atletico Guemes match is calculated as follows: Let P(Home Win) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(Home Win) * 100* 2.21 where 2.21 are the decimal odds for this outcome. Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a Home Win for Deportivo Madryn vs Club Atletico Guemes, EV(Home Win) to be 46.44% * 100 * 2.21, which translates to 49.06. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically. DRAW TIPS AWAY WIN TIPS GG TIPS NG TIPS OVER 1.5 TIPS Given the historical results of these teams, it is most likely that at least 2 goals will be scored in this match. Regardless of the low odds, I bet you might want to form a multi bet with this over 1.5 Prediction for Deportivo Madryn vs Club Atletico Guemes. The over OR under 1.5 goals tips for this match is therefore clearly, over 1.5 goals. We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a over 1.5 in this Deportivo Madryn vs Club Atletico Guemes match. The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 60.67% probability for a OVER 1.5 outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 79.32% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 88.85% chance for a over 1.5 outcome. This Deportivo Madryn vs Club Atletico Guemes match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all. To find if the Over 1.5 bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied OVER 1.5 bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.07333333333333 with an implied bookmaker probability of 93.17%. The calculated Surebet probability for the Over 1.5 outcome for this Deportivo Madryn vs Club Atletico Guemes match is 76.28%, meaning this bet is not a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may be about to lose expected value by -16.89%. Expected Value, EV(OVER 1.5), for a OVER 1.5 result for this Deportivo Madryn vs Club Atletico Guemes match is calculated as follows: Let P(OVER 1.5) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(OVER 1.5) * 100* 1.07333333333333 where 1.07333333333333 are the decimal odds for this outcome. Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a OVER 1.5 for Deportivo Madryn vs Club Atletico Guemes, EV(OVER 1.5) to be 76.28% * 100 * 1.07, which translates to 58.15. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.