The expected value for a Home Win prediction is denoted as EV(Home Win) and is calculated by multiplying the amount of stake by the odds and again by the probability of winning then subtracting the result of multiplying the stake and the probability of losing.

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By using 100 as your sample stake, by calculating the EV as explained, we get the expected value for a Home Win in this Newport vs Southampton match is 209.15 which is positive and therefore a good bet.The odds for Home Win outcome on major betting sites are, on average, 5.19 with an implied bookmaker probability of 19.27%. 

Considering that the surebet probability for the Home Win outcome for this Newport vs Southampton match is 49.94%, then this bet is a value bet. If you play this bet then you gain expected value by 30.68%Strong recent and past performances that Newport have demonstrated lead us to conclude that the prospects for a home win are quite high for this match. Expert football prediction sites have also supported this prediction by far and large. 

Southampton might not be able to record either a win or a draw in this match. It is however prudent to compare diffrent predictions to find the ones with the highest probabilities. True profits come from predictions with over 90% chance of coming true. Some of our tips are 100% sure and guaranteed but can only be accessed by VIP members. 

You can also become a VIP member once you subscribe. Note also that you do not always have to use the win-draw-win market. It might be popular but not necessarily the best or least risky. See all predictions today to see tips from other betting markets. All 3 major Surebet prediction models have indicated a possible home win in this Newport vs Southampton match. 

Poisson prediction model shows there is a 39.55% chance for the outcome while the ELO Ratings model shows a 50.17% chance for the same. Finally, 60.12% of the Monte Carlo simulation runs for this match resulted in home win. This pretty much consolidates the prediction of a home win in this game.