OSNABRUCK vs DUISBURG SURE PREDICTION
A detailed Osnabruck vs Duisburg sure prediction with expert opinion, H2H matches, statistical analysis for this Germany, 3rd Liga match on 18-Aug-2021
Osnabruck
Duisburg
DATE:
18 August 2021 at 20:00:00
TIME:
8:00 PM
COUNTRY:
Germany
LEAGUE
3rd Liga
1X2 PREDICTION
HOME WIN:
35%
AVR. ODDS:
2.19
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
DRAW:
27%
AVR. ODDS:
3.29
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
AWAY WIN:
38%
AVR. ODDS:
3.29
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
EXPERT TIPS FOR THIS MATCH
<p class="font_7">We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a over 1.5 in this Osnabruck vs Duisburg match. The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 64.39% probability for a OVER 1.5 outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 70.30% probability for the same outccome. </p>
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<p class="font_7">The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 75.27% chance for a over 1.5 outcome. This Osnabruck vs Duisburg match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all. To find if the Over 1.5 bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied OVER 1.5 bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.20261437908497 with an implied bookmaker probability of 83.15%. </p>
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<p class="font_7">The calculated Surebet probability for the Over 1.5 outcome for this Osnabruck vs Duisburg match is 69.99%, meaning this bet is not a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may be about to lose expected value by -13.17%Expected Value, EV(OVER 1.5), for a OVER 1.5 result for this Osnabruck vs Duisburg match is calculated as follows: Let P(OVER 1.5) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(OVER 1.5) * 100* 1.20261437908497 where 1.20261437908497 are the decimal odds for this outcome. </p>
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<p class="font_7">Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a OVER 1.5 for Osnabruck vs Duisburg, EV(OVER 1.5) to be 69.99% * 100 * 1.2, which translates to 54.15. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.Given the historical results of these teams, it is most likely that at least 2 goals will be scored in this match. </p>
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<p class="font_7">Regardless of the low odds, I bet you might want to form a multi bet with this over 1.5 Prediction for Osnabruck vs Duisburg. The over OR under 1.5 goals tips for this match is therefore clearly, over 1.5 goals.</p>
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GG/NG(BTTS) PREDICTION
GG(BTTS):
48%
AVR. ODDS:
1.68
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
NO GOAL:
52%
AVR. ODDS:
2.06
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 1.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 1.5:
40%
AVR. ODDS:
1.2
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
UNDER 1.5:
30%
AVR. ODDS:
3.4
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 2.5:
44%
AVR. ODDS:
1.84
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
UNDER 2.5:
56%
AVR. ODDS:
1.87
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 3.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 3.5:
23%
AVR. ODDS:
3.23
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
UNDER 3.5:
77%
AVR. ODDS:
1.4
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
MATCH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS
OSNABRUCK VS DUISBURG LATEST HEAD TO HEAD MATCHES
Duisburg and Osnabruck have met 6 times recently since 19/04/14. Below is a breakdown of those matches and the results. Note that these matches will play a big role in the Duisburg vs Osnabruck prediction.
16/11/18 - Duisburg [1 : 1] Osnabruck
02-Apr-2017 - Duisburg [2 : 2] Osnabruck
08-Jul-2016 - Osnabruck [1 : 1] Duisburg
28/02/15 - Osnabruck [1 : 1] Duisburg
09-Jun-2014 - Duisburg [3 : 0] Osnabruck
19/04/14 - Duisburg [1 : 0] Osnabruck
OSNABRUCK LAST 10 MATCHES
Below are Osnabruck's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Osnabruck lost to Wiesbaden (0-1) on 14/08/21
Then Osnabruck won against Bremen (2-0) on 08-Jul-2021
Saarbrucken lost to Osnabruck (1-2) on 31/07/21
Not surprisingly Osnabruck won against Lotte (9-0) on 27/07/21
Osnabruck lost to Groningen (0-1) on 17/07/21
Osnabruck drew with Eindhoven (0-0) on 07-Oct-2021
Then TUS Bersenbruck lost to Osnabruck (0-7) on 26/06/21
Osnabruck won against Ingolstadt (3-1) on 30/05/21
Ingolstadt won against Osnabruck (3-0) on 27/05/21
In the earliest match listed here Erzgebirge Aue won against Osnabruck (2-1) on 23/05/21
RECENT MATCHES - AWAY TEAM
Below are Duisburg's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Saarbrucken won against Duisburg (2-0) on 14/08/21
Duisburg won against Havelse (3-0) on 08-Aug-2021
Then Duisburg drew with 1. FC Cologne (1-1) on 07-Oct-2021
Meppen won against Duisburg (2-1) on 22/05/21
Duisburg lost to Ingolstadt (1-5) on 15/05/21
Then Magdeburg won against Duisburg (3-2) on 05-Aug-2021
Duisburg drew with B. Munich II (2-2) on 05-May-2021
Dresden won against Duisburg (1-0) on 28/04/21
Once more Wiesbaden lost to Duisburg (0-3) on 25/04/21
Duisburg drew with Kaiserslautern (2-2) on 20/04/21
OSNABRUCK'S POSITION
Osnabruck is in position 13 with 3 points from 2 matches. They are below Turkgucu Munich who have 3 points and above Zwickau who have 2 points.
have scored 2 goals and conceded 2 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of 0 goals this season.
DUISBURG'S POSITION
Duisburg is in position 11 with 3 points from 2 matches. They are below Braunschweig who have 4 points and above who have points.
Duisburg have scored 3 goals and conceded 2 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of 1 goals this season.
OSNABRUCK'S BEST PLAYERS
No notable players
DUISBURG'S BEST PLAYERS
No notable players
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