HOME WIN TIPS

After analysing all the data and compiling and comparing expert opinions on this Club Almagro vs San Telmo match, we are well convinced that Club Almagro is in better form, better motivated and has proven in the past their ability to dominate this game against San Telmo. The surebet prediction for this game is therefore a home win.

Note that there might be even better tips you can bet on today if you can be bold enough to subscribe for VIP tips. Besides, you might want to check out the GG/NG tips given their ability to increase betting profits for many punters. We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a home win in this Club Almagro vs San Telmo match.

The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 39.49% probability for a Home Win outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 49.80% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 56.34% chance for a home win outcome. This Club Almagro vs San Telmo match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models.

Keep reading to find them all. To find if the Home Win bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied Home Win bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 2.14 with an implied bookmaker probability of 46.73%.

The calculated Surebet probability for the Home Win outcome for this Club Almagro vs San Telmo match is 48.54%, meaning this bet is a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may gain expected value by 1.81%.. Expected Value, EV(Home Win), for a Home Win result for this Club Almagro vs San Telmo match is calculated as follows: Let P(Home Win) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet.

Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(Home Win) * 100* 2.14 where 2.14 are the decimal odds for this outcome. Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a Home Win for Club Almagro vs San Telmo, EV(Home Win) to be 48.54% * 100 * 2.14, which translates to 52.42. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically. 

OVER 1.5 TIPS

Given the historical results of these teams, it is most likely that at least 2 goals will be scored in this match. Regardless of the low odds, I bet you might want to form a multi bet with this over 1.5 Prediction for Club Almagro vs San Telmo.

The over OR under 1.5 goals tips for this match is therefore clearly, over 1.5 goals. We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a over 1.5 in this Club Almagro vs San Telmo match. The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 58.16% probability for a OVER 1.5 outcome. 

The ELO Ratings model came through with a 77.82% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 87.98% chance for a over 1.5 outcome. This Club Almagro vs San Telmo match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all.

To find if the Over 1.5 bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied OVER 1.5 bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.40 with an implied bookmaker probability of 71.09%. The calculated Surebet probability for the Over 1.5 outcome for this Club Almagro vs San Telmo match is 74.66%, meaning this bet is a value bet.

In case you place this bet, you may gain expected value by 3.57%. Expected Value, EV(OVER 1.5), for a OVER 1.5 result for this Club Almagro vs San Telmo match is calculated as follows: Let P(OVER 1.5) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet.

Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(OVER 1.5) * 100* 1.40 where 1.40 are the decimal odds for this outcome. Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a OVER 1.5 for Club Almagro vs San Telmo, EV(OVER 1.5) to be 74.66% * 100 * 1.4, which translates to 79.67. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.