THE ART OF SUREBETS

Surebets are predictions whose chances of coming true are near 100%. A sure bet therefore must have over 90% chance of occurrence. This means that 9 out of ten of the time, the prediction comes true on average. Anything less than that does not qualify to be called a surebet or sure bet.

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Surebetsite is an acclaimed provider of sure bets, sure bet tips and predictions. Our winning rate is a solid 93% on all services or packages. The main question among many of our users is why we do not offer 100% sure bet predictions. The answer is simple, we are human too, and nothing that has not happened yet is ever 100% sure.

 

The Surebet Question is a contagious and polarizing debate about the existence and use of sure bets in betting whose conclusion is that surebets exist in plain sight for anybody who can recognize them.

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ARBITRATION - SUREBETTING

It is official that using surebet strategies such as arbitration and live betting, you can easily make your own surebets. Anybody could do this is you can crack numbers fast and strategically. Like in most areas of science or art, Sure betting has rules, guidelines and commandments. If you use them and use VIP tips that are both analyzed and verified by experts, then you can surely achieve consistent profit from your betting.

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In the traditional way of using surebets, the element of Surebet shoulders is one that baffles many. If you are a Professional Arber, then our VIP tips comes with numerous surebet shoulders that guarantee profits regardless of the outcome. Surebet Shouders are those matches that provide the chances for arbing successfully.

 

The profit margins from such surebets might be low but this is solved once you get the Advanced Surebet & Arbing Spreadsheet that you can use to spread your bets in a way that maximize profits in case of a target outcome, and returns the full stake amount in case of any other outcome.

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One factor that affects the profit margins of surebets and even determines the very existence of an arbing opportunity is the profit margin sought by the bookmarkers that you use. Getting good profits from Sure bets therefore depend on how well you know about using of bet exchanges to increase your profit margin.

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Finally, make sure you understand the shortcomings of betting arbitration to avoid disappointments and losses. You must have all bases covered if you are to make consistent profits on bookmakers or betting exchanges.

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THE SUREBET QUESTION – DO SUREBETS EXIST

YES.

Surebets do exist. To find surebets you need to use surebet finders or a program that calculates odds offered by several bookmakers to identify those that provide an opportunity for sure bets to exist. Surebets exist due to 2 main reasons:

 

1. FLUCTUATIONS IN ODDS

Odd movement or odds fluctuation is the main reason sure bets exist. Bookmakers change odds for each event constantly as a result of demand and supply. If a significant number of people bet on a particular outcome, the odds go down so that the outcome becomes less attractive to others.

 

The opposing odds, on the other hand, goes up as the bookmaker tries to encourage bets on it. Bookmakers do this to balance the risks and ensure a profit for the house because the house always wins.

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Fortunately for arbers, some bookmakers may be slow to update the odds even as others have them updated. This is where the arber comes in and takes advantage in such a way that whatever the outcome, a small profit is guaranteed.

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BOOKMAKER ERROR

Some bookmakers make errors in their odds. Odds for some events are listed significantly higher than they are supposed to be in regard to the average odds among other bookmakers. These errors, although rare, provide fertile ground for surebets to exist.

 

There are many surebet alert services that can help you identify such errors and capitalize on them. Since the errors might last for only a few minutes or hours, you may need to be quick in identifying and exploiting the errors before corrections are made. Remember, the corrections do not change the odds in your already placed bet slips.

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LIVE BETTING

The above 2 reasons for existence of surebets are solely applicable for pre-match bets. Majority of sure bets in reality happen during live matches. Each event in a match causes some changes on odds.

 

Time is big factor too. As time passes, odds like for Over or Under market change constantly. Each goal, shot on target or yellow card has an effect on some odds. With a good live betting strategy, you can have numerous surebet opportunities for any game.

 

CONCLUSION

So, yes, surebets do exist and it is possible to bet without losing. To achieve this, you need to learn about arbitrage betting, register on some surebet finder websites and on multiple bookmaker websites. It is not all roses in this art of surebetting.

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There are shortcomings of arbitrage betting you might need to overcome to turn a meaningful profit from surebetting.

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We also have a surprising and enlightening answer for you if you need to know if fixed matches really do exist.

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BETTING ARBITRATION

Betting Arbitration is betting on outcomes without the risk of losing. Guaranteed profits for a bet whatever the outcome is the basis of betting arbitration. Many people have asked me before if surebets really do exist and it is for that reason I am dedicating this article to writing on all you need to know about sure bets and arbitrage betting.

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UNDERLYING PROBABILITIES

Most bookmakers protect themselves from running losses by optimizing the odds in their book such that they don’t provide arbitrage opportunities. This they do by providing odds that are lower than really are supposed to be.

 

Odds are a representation of the underlying probabilities for an event. Like all probabilities, the joint probability for a certain set of odds should add up to 100%. For instance, the probability that a match that plays to conclusion ends with a home win, a draw or an away win is unsurprisingly 100%. Those are the 3 and only outcomes available for a full time Win-Draw-Win market.

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If the probabilities were accurately reflected in bookmaker odds on their websites, then the house would not turn a profit. The value of wins by the punters would cancel the value lost by those that lose.

 

The gains and profits would cancel out.

It is for this reason that bookmakers mark down the probability for outcomes across the board such that if you added the underlying probability you would end you with a percentage that is greater than 100%.

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CALCULATING UNDERLYING PROBABILITIES

For decimal odds, the underlying probabilities of an event are simply the inverse of the odds. For instance for a match with a home win odds of 1.5, the underlying probability for this outcome is 1/(1.5) which is 66%. This means the home team has a 66% chance that it will win.

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For a full set of the above match, which in this example we use Juventus vs Torino, the odds are as follows:

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Juventus win: 1.5

Draw: 4.13

Torino win: 6.64

Below is a table of the reciprocals of these odds:

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As you can see, the percentages do not add up to 100%. The extra 5.94% represents the profit margin of the bookmaker. They have to do this to turn a profit on this set of odds.

As a gambler, betting on any of the odds above does not provide you an advantage; rather, you succumb to the rule that the house always wins. There is no arbitration opportunity in this game even if you divided up the stake money in whichever manner.

 

BETTING ARBITRATION OPPORTUNITIES

Now that I have shown you what an arbitration opportunity is not, let me show you what an arbitration opportunity look like.

Consider a second match, Hannover vs Koln with odds and the reciprocals as in the table below:

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In this case, all the 3 probabilities add up to 91.66%. Whenever you see the total of probabilities being less than 100%, it means one thing, an arbitration opportunity. The odds for this game give you a chance of turning a profit whatever the outcome is.

 

The expected profit will depend on your total stake but as a rule, it should be constant, and amounts to the difference of the total probability and 100%. In this case, subtracting 91.66% from 100% we get 8.34%.

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If you have a total of 100 dollars to stake on this game, you can expect a guaranteed profit of ($100*8.34%) which is $8.34. This is regardless of the outcome.

 

 

DIVIDING UP THE STAKE AMOUNT

Finding an arbitration opportunity does not guarantee a successful arb. You also have to understand how to divide up the stake amount which in this illustration is $ 100.

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To do it right, divide the total capital amount expected to be won by the individual odds. The result is the amount you should place on each bet. In this case, you expect to gain 100+8.34 = 108 dollars.

 

So for the home team, you should stake (108.34/2.5) = 42.99

For the draw, you stake (108.34/3.35) = 32.34

For the Koln win, you stake (108.34/4) = 25.795

 

Adding up how much you use in the 3 bets: $(42+32+26) = $100

 

However, whichever outcome comes up from the match, you will make the same profit; 6.84.

Home win: 42*2.51 > 108

Draw: 32*3.35 > 108

Away Win: 26*4.2 >108

 

Now, dear punter, this is a perfect example of how to pull of betting arbitration. Do not worry about the omitted decimals since most betting sites might not allow decimal bets. After all, they represent little value to your arbitrage. The important thing is that you now understand how to pull off an arbitrage bet.

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SHORTCOMINGS OF BETTING ARBITRATION

Arbitrage is hailed as the surebet method of making profits from any bet. There are, however, many shortcomings that plaque the idea so much so that it becomes quite difficult to consistently make huge profits with it. Below are some of the shortcomings of arbitration betting.

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Low Profit Margins

Arbitration is based on the idea that no matter the outcome of a match, a profit is guaranteed. This then means that you need to find sure bet shoulders that provide sure betting opportunities. These opportunities are rare and when they pop up, the potential profit is usually minimal.

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It is common for most arbitrage bettors to set an acceptable profit margin cut-off for their bets. For many, it is usually 2.5% or 5%. It is hard to find surebet odds that provide guaranteed profits more than that except in live betting, which is riskier and never guaranteed.

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To successfully engage in arbitrage betting then you need a huge sum of money to bet with in order to make meaningful profits. A profit margin of 2.5% to 5% is not that attractive to many. This is therefore, one of the biggest shortcomings of betting arbitration.

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Difficulty of getting surebet shoulders

Surebet shoulders are not easy to come by. If you used a simple spreadsheet program to calculate odds and identify opportunities for surebetting, you will realize 99.5% of matches do not qualify as surebet shoulders. The remaining 0.5% are spread far and in between. It would take colossal amounts of work to identify a surebet shoulder all by you, mostly through trial and error.

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This therefore means you need to use sure bet finders that are both expensive and not very reliable for all markets or regions. While some surebet finder websites are free, the number and quality of surebet opportunities might be low.

 

You then have to upgrade to premium packages to get better opportunities. Given the small profit margin for arbitrage betting, the ensuing profits may overshadow the profits you make thereby making the whole thing futile and a sheer waste of time, energy and money.

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Possibility of being banned by bookmakers

As some professional arbers have come to realize, bookmakers keep a keen eye on patterns and betting habits of their users. Sophisticated algorithms and AI used in most bookmakers today are capable of identifying when you keep making consistent profits.

 

What makes it worse is that arbing being a low profit margin betting method, you may need to stake large amounts. This makes it easier to be flagged by bookmakers who then may ban you from using their website.

 

Remember, being banned from bookmaker websites is a nasty thing that may even make withdrawal of your already made profits difficult. Remember, whatever you do, bet only within the legal constructs of the laws of your country or area of jurisdiction.

 

Live bet arbitration can backfire

Arbitration during live matches may backfire if you do speculative arbitration. In or legendary article about live betting arbitration, I talked about how you can make good profits if you bet on some outcomes and wait for the match to start before placing your last bet. For example considering a match with 1X2 odds:

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Home win – 1.63

Draw – 4.5

Away win – 5.5

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You may decide to bet on the away team to win and the draw separately before the match then place the final odds after the game starts. The idea is, sometime before the end of the first half, you place the bet as calculated by your surebet program if the odds for home win increase by a certain percentage. This guarantees a good profit whatever the outcome.

 

This is called speculative live arbitrage. Half of the time, however, the odds for the final odds go down instead of rising. This causes the worst case scenario for the strategy. There is however, a way to salvage such a bet by increasing the stake for the last bet.

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In some cases, however, the odds might go extremely low very quickly that salvaging the surebet may mean using a lot of money that you may not have at hand. This is a drawback of the arbitration betting strategy for live bets.

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Time consuming

Arbitration needs a lot of time and the focus of an eagle to turn a profit. The surebet opportunities come and pass fast. Besides, you may need multiple bookmakers to work with, all at the same time to execute the strategy successfully. This means you need to have a lot of time in your hands. While great for unemployed persons or professional arbers, it is too time consuming for majority of punters who have regular jobs or businesses to run.

 

SUREBET TOOLS

There are a number of tools that punters use to find, calculate or execute surebets. These tools are necessary since sure bets are not an easy thing to make money from. Left with your own human competencies, it might be a difficult endeavor to identify sure bet opportunities, let alone execute. It is for this reason that many companies and persons have developed tools that make the process easier.

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We have already covered how sure bets work. I will therefore cover a more specific part of this whole process, the tools. The tools I will talk about below are both tested and verified by the SurebetSite staffs who are experts in betting and gambling.

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There are a few types of tools you may need in executing surebets. The 3 wide categories are:

1. Surebet Finders

2. Surebet Calculators

3. Surebet Spreadsheets

4. Bet Exchanges

5. Surebet tips

Without much ado let us have a good look each of these Sure bet tools

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SUREBET FINDERS

If you have ever tried arbitrage betting then you might have realized how hard it is to find sure bet opportunities. Matches that offer sure bet opportunities are called Surebet Shoulders.

 

The main characteristic of such matches is that they should have bigger than expected odds which will mean a profit for you whatever the outcome. Most bookmakers will try to avoid providing such opportunities on their betting websites. Fortunately though, there are thousands of bookmakers in the world. There are also betting exchanges (which I will talk about later below).

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I bet you already know that odds are dynamic and keep moving up or down throughout the period before a match, and even throughout the period of a match. It is therefore not uncommon for a few bookmakers to lag behind and fail to update odd fluctuations in time. It is on such odds that arbitrage opportunities arise.

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It is paramount that you try a few surebet finders in order to find the best ones. Surebet finders such as Oddspedia are absolutely free to use. Their scope and the number of available surebets is however limited. We have made a complete list of surebet finders and scanners on a different article.

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The other option of not using surebet finders is to identify the sure bets yourself. This will however need different tools as well. One such tool would be a surebet calculator.

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SUREBET CALCULATORS

Surebet calculators are used to find if a certain match can make a surebet based on the observed odds or calculate the odds of an event at which a surebet is possible.

 

This therefore means you must be having a match in mind, whose odds you suspect to be carrying a surebet opportunity. It is not easy to identify these matches. If, however, you have enough time in your hands, you could possibly calculate odds for as many matches as possible in order to find the surebets among the many.

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Assuming you have a match that you suspect to be having an arbitrage opportunity, you will need to use a surebet calculator to confirm that. To do that, you will be required to feed in a set of odds into the online surebet calculators and the system will do the calculation and confirm or dismiss the surebet opportunity. Most surebet calculators have the 3-way system of home win, draw and away win. In such a system you need to enter the 3 odds and then the percentage possible win for the surebet will show.

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In some cases, you may be required to enter 2 of the 3 odds and the system will calculate the third odds’s threshold at which it has to reach in order to make a sure bet of a certain percentage of profit margin.

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There are a number of surebet calculators out there you can use right now to determine if your set of odds form a surebet. Live tips portal is one such calculator.

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In the image below, I used Live tips portal to calculate if a set of odds for 1X2 betting market (4.33, 2.95, 3.55) form a surebet.

 

As you can see, the calculator output the fact that the surebet delivered a profit of 15.13%. This is a hypothetic al example. In most cases, however, the calculator would output a message to deny the availability of a surebet. Sure bets do not come easy.

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SUREBET SPREADSHEETS

Surebet spreadsheets are an alternative to a surebet calculator. They can do what a surebet calculator can do, and more. Besides telling you whether a surebet exists after feeding in the odds, it can also help you keep records of the matches or odds that did not have or did have surebet shoulders.

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Not many such spreadsheets exist, and some that do are hard to follow or make. The Surebetsite Surebet Spreadsheet stands out as one of the best surebet excel sheet out there. You can use this sheet and never have to worry about making your own sure bet predictions ever again.

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In the surebet spreadsheet, you need to have a separate sheet to keep track of all your betting activities and the profits or losses you may have made.

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The Surebet spreadsheet also enables you to only target or choose those surebet opportunities that give you a certain margin of profit while ignoring those with minute profit margins.

 

For instance, you can set the minimum profit to be 5% in which case all odds that give surebet opportunities with less than 5% profit margin are automatically filtered out and treated as if they are not surebets. After all, some profit margins can be too tiny to appeal to many of us. Of what use can a sure bet opportunity with a potential of 0.5% profit be?

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If you need our Surebetsite Arbitrage spreadsheet simply send us an email to lamechnyands@gmail.com.

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You can also learn how to make your own surebet calculator spreadsheet that you can put to good use. After all, making your own surebet spreadsheet can help a lot in making you understand the surebet concepts a lot more deeply.

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BETTING EXCHANGES

Betting exchanges are a crucial tool for surebetting. Betting exchanges are platforms where you can bet against other punters as opposed to bookmakers where you bet against the company.

 

On betting exchanges, you have the freedom to choose the odds you are willing to accept on a certain event. You can also place bets against an outcome, in a scenario that is known as “laying”.

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This feature therefore allows you to dictate higher odds for an event, a decision which puts you at an advantage if you know how to make arbitrage opportunities using bets placed on other outcomes, this time, on a bookmaker website.

 

There is a full article on how to use betting exchanges in surebetting. You can read it later in detail and discover a whole new world of potential profits.

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You can also get to know the best bet exchange websites in 2021 that can come handy when you are ready to make sure profit from arbitrage using bet exchanges.

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SURE BET TIPS AS A TOOL

Sure bet tips websites are the last but not last tool you need to profit from sure bets. Sure bet tips are not directly related to arbitrage betting but play a crucial role in the surebetting industry. One of the facts we have all come to know is that there are tipsters out there who know exactly what outcome is going to happen in a specific match.

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Some of them are transparent and willing to explain how they get these sure bet predictions while most are more opaque.

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It is crucial to understand that most of these tipsters do not actually have sure bets. You should be cautious when choosing a surebet tipster. There are scammers out there hell-bent on separating you from your money at all cost with no goodies in return.

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If, however, you find a good surebet tipster like SurebetSite then stick with them as their verified sure tips can make you lots of profits. These sure tips come in many forms, whose most popular one is fixed matches tips. These are known to make you consistent profit as long as the tipster stays truthful and available.

 

CONCLUSION

While it is possible to get sure bets and profit from arbitrage betting, it is paramount that you get your hands on a number of surebet tools that matter in order to successfully participate in sure betting. Many of these tools already exist and you won’t have to reinvent the wheel. Making use of Surebet finders will enable you make easy and assured profits every day.

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If you already have your suspicions on a particular match having a surebet opportunity then the surebet calculator comes in handy to confirm your suspicion.

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You can also make your own sure bet finder-cum-calculator in order to use in finding, executing and tracking your sure bets placed on either bookmaker websites or betting exchanges.

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Finally, you can use sure bet tips from reputable tipsters and skip the whole process of arbitrage betting and jump to making profits from single bets provided in confidence.

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Let me know in the comment section what your views are about the surebet tools we have discussed above. Have you ever used any of the tools, what was your experience?

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