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CHAPECOENSE vs ATLETICO MINEIRO SURE PREDICTION

A detailed Chapecoense vs Atletico Mineiro sure prediction with expert opinion, H2H matches, statistical analysis for this Brazil, Serie A match on 07-Oct-2021

Chapecoense

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DATE:

6 October 2021 at 01:00:00

Atletico Mineiro

COUNTRY:

Brazil

LEAGUE

Serie A

TIME:

1:00 AM

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1X2 PREDICTION

HOME WIN:

41%

AVR. ODDS:

6.78

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

DRAW:

30%

AVR. ODDS:

4.09

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

AWAY WIN:

29%

AVR. ODDS:

1.49

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

EXPERT TIPS FOR THIS MATCH

All 3 major Surebet prediction models have indicated a possible over 1.5 in this Ceara Ce vs Internacional match. Poisson prediction model shows there is a 70.86% chance for the outcome while the ELO Ratings model shows a 62.45% chance for the same. Finally, 52.18% of the Monte Carlo simulation runs for this match resulted in over 1.5. This pretty much consolidates the prediction of a over 1.5 in this game. The odds for Over 1.5 outcome on major betting sites are, on average, 1.52287581699346 with an implied bookmaker probability of 65.67%. Considering that the surebet probability for the OVER 1.5 outcome for this Ceara Ce vs Internacional match is 61.83%, then this bet is not a value bet.If you play this bet then you lose expected value by -3.84%The expected value for a OVER 1.5 prediction is denoted as EV(OVER 1.5) and is calculated by multiplying the amount of stake by the odds and again by the probability of winning then subtracting the result of multiplying the stake and the probability of losing. By using 100 as your sample stake, by calculating the EV as explained, we get the expected value for a OVER 1.5 in this Ceara Ce vs Internacional match is 55.98 which is positive and therefore a good bet.Given the historical matches of these teams, it is almost clear that at least 2 goals will be scored in this match. Regardless of the low odds, I bet you might want to form a multi bet with this over 1.5 Prediction for Ceara Ce vs Internacional. The over/under 1.5 goals tips for this match is therefore clearly, over 1.5 goals.
CHAPECOENSE vs ATLETICO MINEIRO SURE PREDICTION

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GG/NG(BTTS) PREDICTION

GG(BTTS):

43%

AVR. ODDS:

2.19

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

NO GOAL:

AVR. ODDS:

57%

1.6

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

OVER/UNDER 1.5 GOALS PREDICTION

OVER 1.5:

40%

AVR. ODDS:

1.31

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

UNDER 1.5:

37%

AVR. ODDS:

3.13

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS PREDICTION

OVER 2.5:

36%

AVR. ODDS:

2.01

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

UNDER 2.5:

AVR. ODDS:

VALUEBET?

64%

1.72

Value Bet

OVER/UNDER 3.5 GOALS PREDICTION

OVER 3.5:

17%

AVR. ODDS:

3.53

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

UNDER 3.5:

83%

AVR. ODDS:

1.28

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

MATCH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS

CHAPECOENSE VS ATLETICO MINEIRO LATEST HEAD TO HEAD MATCHES

Atletico Mineiro and Chapecoense have met 6 times recently since 17/05/18. Below is a breakdown of those matches and the results. Note that these matches will play a big role in the Atletico Mineiro vs Chapecoense prediction.
22/06/21 - Atletico Mineiro [1 : 1] Chapecoense
31/10/19 - Atletico Mineiro [0 : 2] Chapecoense
15/07/19 - Chapecoense [1 : 2] Atletico Mineiro
10-Jun-2018 - Chapecoense [1 : 0] Atletico Mineiro
06-Feb-2018 - Atletico Mineiro [3 : 3] Chapecoense
17/05/18 - Chapecoense [4 : 3] Atletico Mineiro

CHAPECOENSE LAST 10 MATCHES

Below are Chapecoense's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Chapecoense drew with Sao Paulo (1-1) on 10-Mar-2021
Then Ceara won against Chapecoense (1-0) on 25/09/21
Chapecoense lost to Palmeiras (0-2) on 18/09/21
Not surprisingly Bragantino lost to Chapecoense (1-2) on 09-Dec-2021
Chapecoense lost to Fluminense (1-2) on 09-Aug-2021
Recife drew with Chapecoense (0-0) on 28/08/21
Then Goianiense GO drew with Chapecoense (1-1) on 21/08/21
Chapecoense drew with America FC MG (1-1) on 17/08/21
Gremio won against Chapecoense (2-1) on 08-Oct-2021
In the earliest match listed here Chapecoense lost to Santos (0-1) on 08-Feb-2021

RECENT MATCHES - AWAY TEAM

Below are Atletico Mineiro's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Atletico Mineiro won against Internacional (1-0) on 10-Mar-2021
Atletico Mineiro drew with Palmeiras (1-1) on 29/09/21
Then Sao Paulo drew with Atletico Mineiro (0-0) on 26/09/21
Palmeiras drew with Atletico Mineiro (0-0) on 22/09/21
Atletico Mineiro won against Recife (3-0) on 19/09/21
Then Atletico Mineiro won against Fluminense (1-0) on 16/09/21
Fortaleza lost to Atletico Mineiro (0-2) on 09-Dec-2021
Bragantino drew with Atletico Mineiro (1-1) on 30/08/21
Once more Fluminense lost to Atletico Mineiro (1-2) on 27/08/21
Fluminense drew with Atletico Mineiro (1-1) on 24/08/21

CHAPECOENSE'S POSITION

Chapecoense is in position 20 with 11 points from 23 matches. They are below Recife who have 20 points and above who have points.
have scored 18 goals and conceded 36 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of -18 goals this season.

ATLETICO MINEIRO'S POSITION

Atletico Mineiro is in position 1 with 49 points from 22 matches. They are below who have points and above Palmeiras who have 39 points.
Atletico Mineiro have scored 33 goals and conceded 13 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of 20 goals this season.

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