UNDER 3.5 PREDICTION All 3 major Surebet prediction models have indicated a possible under 3.5 in this Chile vs Uruguay match. Poisson prediction model shows there is a 69.19% chance for the outcome while the ELO Ratings model shows a 84.80% chance for the same. Finally, 95.69% of the Monte Carlo simulation runs for this match resulted in under 3.5. This pretty much consolidates the prediction of a under 3.5 in this game. The odds for Under 3.5 outcome on major betting sites are, on average, 1.3134328358209 with an implied bookmaker probability of 76.14%. Considering that the surebet probability for the Under 3.5 outcome for this Chile vs Uruguay match is 83.23%, then this bet is a value bet. If you play this bet then you you gain expected value by 7.09%. The expected value for a UNDER 3.5 prediction is denoted as EV(UNDER 3.5) and is calculated by multiplying the amount of stake by the odds and again by the probability of winning then subtracting the result of multiplying the stake and the probability of losing. By using 100 as your sample stake, by calculating the EV as explained, we get the expected value for a UNDER 3.5 in this Chile vs Uruguay match is 92.54 which is positive and therefore a good bet. In as much as Chile and Uruguay are expected to score some goals in this match, I do not see a situation where they can score more than 3 goals. They have proved in the past that they lack the capacity to stage consistent attacks with shots on target against each other. An under 3.5 prediction for this match is just fine.