HOME WIN TIPS After analysing all the data and compiling and comparing expert opinions on this Union Comercio vs Alianza Atletico match, we are well convinced that Union Comercio is in better form, better motivated and has proven in the past their ability to dominate this game against Alianza Atletico. The surebet prediction for this game is therefore a home win. Note that there might be even better tips you can bet on today if you can be bold enough to subscribe for VIP tips. Besides, you might want to check out the GG/NG tips given their ability to increase betting profits for many punters. To find if the Home Win bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied Home Win bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 3 with an implied bookmaker probability of 33.33%. The calculated Surebet probability for the Home Win outcome for this Union Comercio vs Alianza Atletico match is 51.96%, meaning this bet is a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may gain expected value by 18.62%.. Expected Value, EV(Home Win), for a Home Win result for this Union Comercio vs Alianza Atletico match is calculated as follows: Let P(Home Win) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(Home Win) * 100* 3 where 3 are the decimal odds for this outcome. Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a Home Win for Union Comercio vs Alianza Atletico, EV(Home Win) to be 51.96% * 100 * 3, which translates to 107.83. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.