<p class="font_7">Surebet's experience, algorithms and expertise have all converged on a conclution that this will be a high scoring match. Matches with high expected goals, passes and shots on target usually end with over 2.5 goals. This match between Avellino and Virtus Francavilla is one of those.&nbsp;</p>
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<p class="font_7">The odds for over 2.5 are also relatively good at 2.4 This is an average bet with high Odds. Also check out Over/Under tips for half time on the half time tips page. We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a over 2.5 in this Avellino vs Virtus Francavilla match. The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 56.78% probability for a OVER 2.5 outcome.&nbsp;</p>
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<p class="font_7">The ELO Ratings model came through with a 66.74% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 73.99% chance for a over 2.5 outcome. This Avellino vs Virtus Francavilla match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all.&nbsp;</p>
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<p class="font_7">To find if the Over 2.5 bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied OVER 2.5 bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 2.4 with an implied bookmaker probability of 41.67%. The calculated Surebet probability for the Over 2.5 outcome for this Avellino vs Virtus Francavilla match is 65.83%, meaning this bet is a value bet.&nbsp;</p>
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<p class="font_7">In case you place this bet, you may gain expected value by 24.17%Expected Value, EV(OVER 2.5), for a OVER 2.5 result for this Avellino vs Virtus Francavilla match is calculated as follows: Let P(OVER 2.5) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(OVER 2.5) * 100* 2.4 where 2.4 are the decimal odds for this outcome.&nbsp;</p>
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<p class="font_7">Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a OVER 2.5 for Avellino vs Virtus Francavilla, EV(OVER 2.5) to be 65.83% * 100 * 2.4, which translates to 123.83. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.</p>