We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a away win in this Nantes vs Lyon match. The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 53.90% probability for a Away Win outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 47.57% probability for the same outccome.

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The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 41.73% chance for a away win outcome. This Nantes vs Lyon match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all. To find if the Away Win bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied Away Win bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.77 with an implied bookmaker probability of 56.50%. 

The calculated Surebet probability for the Away Win outcome for this Nantes vs Lyon match is 47.73%, meaning this bet is not a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may be about to lose expected value by -8.77%Expected Value, EV(Away Win), for a Away Win result for this Nantes vs Lyon match is calculated as follows: Let P(Away Win) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. 

Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(Away Win) * 100* 1.77 where 1.77 are the decimal odds for this outcome. Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a Away Win for Nantes vs Lyon, EV(Away Win) to be 47.73% * 100 * 1.77, which translates to 32.21. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.

Lyon is expected to outperform Nantes in this match. Home advantage may not help Nantes in this game. With odds of 1.77 you stand to win a fairly good amount from this tip. This is the best sure bet prediction for this match. 

Note that you should also consider other betting markets other than 1X2 predictions or bets. Asian handicaps and European handicaps, for instance, can make you better profits from a match like this.