OVER 1.5 TIPS Given the historical results of these teams, it is most likely that at least 2 goals will be scored in this match. Regardless of the low odds, I bet you might want to form a multi bet with this over 1.5 Prediction for PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar. The over OR under 1.5 goals tips for this match is therefore clearly, over 1.5 goals. To find if the Over 1.5 bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied OVER 1.5 bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.06666666666667 with an implied bookmaker probability of 93.75%. The calculated Surebet probability for the Over 1.5 outcome for this PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar match is 76.01%, meaning this bet is not a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may be about to lose expected value by -17.74%. Expected Value, EV(OVER 1.5), for a OVER 1.5 result for this PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar match is calculated as follows: Let P(OVER 1.5) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(OVER 1.5) * 100* 1.06666666666667 where 1.06666666666667 are the decimal odds for this outcome. Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a OVER 1.5 for PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar, EV(OVER 1.5) to be 76.01% * 100 * 1.06, which translates to 57.08. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.