DUISBURG vs WEHEN SURE PREDICTION
A detailed Duisburg vs Wehen sure prediction with expert opinion, H2H matches, statistical analysis for this Germany, 3rd Liga match on 25-Aug-2021
Duisburg
Wehen
DATE:
25 August 2021 at 20:00:00
TIME:
8:00 PM
COUNTRY:
Germany
LEAGUE
3rd Liga
1X2 PREDICTION
HOME WIN:
44%
AVR. ODDS:
2.9
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
DRAW:
27%
AVR. ODDS:
3.05
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
AWAY WIN:
29%
AVR. ODDS:
2.55
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
EXPERT TIPS FOR THIS MATCH
<p class="font_7">Given the historical results of these teams, it is most likely that at least 2 goals will be scored in this match. Regardless of the low odds, I bet you might want to form a multi bet with this over 1.5 Prediction for Duisburg vs Wehen. The over OR under 1.5 goals tips for this match is therefore clearly, over 1.5 goals. </p>
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<p class="font_7"><br></p>
<p class="font_7">We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a over 1.5 in this Duisburg vs Wehen match. The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 65.69% probability for a OVER 1.5 outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 70.47% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 74.65% chance for a over 1.5 outcome. </p>
<p class="font_7"><br></p>
<p class="font_7">This Duisburg vs Wehen match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all. To find if the Over 1.5 bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied OVER 1.5 bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.07843137254902 with an implied bookmaker probability of 92.73%. </p>
<p class="font_7"><br></p>
<p class="font_7">The calculated Surebet probability for the Over 1.5 outcome for this Duisburg vs Wehen match is 70.27%, meaning this bet is not a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may be about to lose expected value by -22.46%Expected Value, EV(OVER 1.5), for a OVER 1.5 result for this Duisburg vs Wehen match is calculated as follows: Let P(OVER 1.5) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. </p>
<p class="font_7"><br></p>
<p class="font_7">Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(OVER 1.5) * 100* 1.07843137254902 where 1.07843137254902 are the decimal odds for this outcome. Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a OVER 1.5 for Duisburg vs Wehen, EV(OVER 1.5) to be 70.27% * 100 * 1.07, which translates to 46.04. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.</p>
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GG/NG(BTTS) PREDICTION
GG(BTTS):
49%
AVR. ODDS:
1.5
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
NO GOAL:
51%
AVR. ODDS:
2.42
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 1.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 1.5:
40%
AVR. ODDS:
1.08
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
UNDER 1.5:
30%
AVR. ODDS:
3.84
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 2.5:
45%
AVR. ODDS:
1.65
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
UNDER 2.5:
55%
AVR. ODDS:
2.11
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 3.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 3.5:
23%
AVR. ODDS:
2.89
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
UNDER 3.5:
76%
AVR. ODDS:
1.57
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
MATCH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS
DUISBURG VS WEHEN LATEST HEAD TO HEAD MATCHES
Wiesbaden and Duisburg have met 6 times recently since 29/11/14. Below is a breakdown of those matches and the results. Note that these matches will play a big role in the Wiesbaden vs Duisburg prediction.
25/04/21 - Wiesbaden [0 : 3] Duisburg
12-Dec-2020 - Duisburg [4 : 1] Wiesbaden
03-Nov-2017 - Duisburg [0 : 1] Wiesbaden
16/09/16 - Wiesbaden [3 : 0] Duisburg
23/05/15 - Wiesbaden [1 : 0] Duisburg
29/11/14 - Duisburg [3 : 2] Wiesbaden
DUISBURG LAST 10 MATCHES
Below are Duisburg's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Magdeburg won against Duisburg (2-1) on 21/08/21
Then Osnabruck lost to Duisburg (0-1) on 18/08/21
Saarbrucken won against Duisburg (2-0) on 14/08/21
Not surprisingly Duisburg won against Havelse (3-0) on 08-Aug-2021
Duisburg drew with 1. FC Cologne (1-1) on 07-Oct-2021
Meppen won against Duisburg (2-1) on 22/05/21
Then Duisburg lost to Ingolstadt (1-5) on 15/05/21
Magdeburg won against Duisburg (3-2) on 05-Aug-2021
Duisburg drew with B. Munich II (2-2) on 05-May-2021
In the earliest match listed here Dresden won against Duisburg (1-0) on 28/04/21
RECENT MATCHES - AWAY TEAM
Below are Wehen's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Wiesbaden won against Havelse (2-1) on 22/08/21
Osnabruck lost to Wiesbaden (0-1) on 14/08/21
Then Wiesbaden lost to Dortmund (0-3) on 08-Jul-2021
Wiesbaden drew with 1860 Munich (0-0) on 31/07/21
Freiburg II drew with Wiesbaden (0-0) on 26/07/21
Then Frankfurt lost to Wiesbaden (1-3) on 07-Oct-2021
Wiesbaden won against Schweinfurt (1-0) on 07-Jul-2021
Wiesbaden won against Waldalgesheim (6-0) on 26/06/21
Once more Wiesbaden lost to Dresden (0-1) on 22/05/21
Halle won against Wiesbaden (4-0) on 16/05/21
DUISBURG'S POSITION
Duisburg is in position 11 with 6 points from 4 matches. They are below Turkgucu Munich who have 6 points and above Mannheim who have 5 points.
have scored 5 goals and conceded 4 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of 1 goals this season.
WEHEN'S POSITION
Wiesbaden is in position 4 with 8 points from 4 matches. They are below Dortmund II who have 8 points and above Saarbrucken who have 7 points.
Wehen have scored 3 goals and conceded 1 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of 2 goals this season.
DUISBURG'S BEST PLAYERS
Sure bet prediction, tips and even fixed matches all depend on the form of players. Below are Duisburg's players that have the potential of shaping the predictions and results for this game:
Moritz Stoppelkamp - The Germany National Moritz Stoppelkamp has scored 2 goals in 3 matches and shot 1 foul kicks. He has scored 2 penalties. The 0.19's average goals per match is 0.67.
Orhan Ademi - The Switzerland National Orhan Ademi has scored 2 goals in 4 matches and shot 1 foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The 0.15's average goals per match is 0.5.
Kolja Pusch - The Germany National Kolja Pusch has scored 1 goals in 4 matches and shot - foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The 0.33's average goals per match is 0.25.
WEHEN'S BEST PLAYERS
The following Wehen players are crucial in determining the results of this game:
Gustaf Nilsson - The Sweden National Gustaf Nilsson has scored 2 goals in 4 matches and shot 1 foul kicks. He has scored 1 penalties. The forward's average goals per match is 0.5.
Florian Carstens - The Germany National Florian Carstens has scored 1 goals in 4 matches and shot 1 foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The defender's average goals per match is 0.25.
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