SANTOS AP vs MACAPA AP SURE PREDICTION
A detailed Santos Ap vs Macapa Ap sure prediction with expert opinion, H2H matches, statistical analysis for this Brazil, Campeonato Amapaense match on 06-Aug-2021
Santos Ap
DATE:
5 August 2021 at 02:00:00
Macapa Ap
COUNTRY:
Brazil
LEAGUE
Campeonato Amapaense
TIME:
2:00 AM
1X2 PREDICTION
HOME WIN:
19%
AVR. ODDS:
1.11
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
DRAW:
19%
AVR. ODDS:
6.93
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
AWAY WIN:
60%
AVR. ODDS:
17.33
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
EXPERT TIPS FOR THIS MATCH
Macapa Ap is expected to outperform Santos Ap in this match. Home advantage may not help Santos Ap in this game. With odds of 17.33 you stand to win a fairly good amount from this tip. This is the best sure bet prediction for this match. Note that you should also consider other betting markets other than 1X2 predictions or bets.
Asian handicaps and European handicaps, for instance, can make you better profits from a match like this. We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a away win in this Santos Ap vs Macapa Ap match. The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 72.30% probability for a Away Win outcome.
The ELO Ratings model came through with a 62.16% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 46.08% chance for a away win outcome. This Santos Ap vs Macapa Ap match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models.
Keep reading to find them all. To find if the Away Win bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied Away Win bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 17.33 with an implied bookmaker probability of 5.77%. The calculated Surebet probability for the Away Win outcome for this Santos Ap vs Macapa Ap match is 60.18%, meaning this bet is a value bet.
In case you place this bet, you may gain expected value by 54.41%Expected Value, EV(Away Win), for a Away Win result for this Santos Ap vs Macapa Ap match is calculated as follows: Let P(Away Win) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(Away Win) * 100* 17.33 where 17.33 are the decimal odds for this outcome.
Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a Away Win for Santos Ap vs Macapa Ap, EV(Away Win) to be 60.18% * 100 * 17.33, which translates to 1003.11. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.
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GG/NG(BTTS) PREDICTION
GG(BTTS):
58%
AVR. ODDS:
2.09
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
NO GOAL:
AVR. ODDS:
39%
1.66
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 1.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 1.5:
40%
AVR. ODDS:
0.88
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
UNDER 1.5:
15%
AVR. ODDS:
5.36
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 2.5:
64%
AVR. ODDS:
1.35
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
UNDER 2.5:
AVR. ODDS:
VALUEBET?
33%
2.95
Not a Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 3.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 3.5:
43%
AVR. ODDS:
2.37
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
UNDER 3.5:
54%
AVR. ODDS:
2.2
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
MATCH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS
SANTOS AP VS MACAPA AP LATEST HEAD TO HEAD MATCHES
Curently no head to head
SANTOS AP LAST 10 MATCHES
Below are Santos Ap's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Santos won against Santana AP (3-0) on 31/07/21
Then Ypiranga drew with Santos (2-2) on 21/07/21
Santos lost to Gama (0-2) on 24/01/21
Not surprisingly Santos lost to SE Juventude MA (1-2) on 28/11/20
AA Altos won against Santos (2-0) on 23/11/20
Santos lost to Sao Raimundo (0-1) on 20/11/20
Then Santos won against Sinop MT (3-0) on 17/11/20
Bare drew with Santos (0-0) on 11-Jan-2020
Santos lost to River (0-3) on 25/10/20
In the earliest match listed here Moto Clube won against Santos (2-0) on 22/10/20
RECENT MATCHES - AWAY TEAM
Currently no previous matches
SANTOS AP'S POSITION
Santos is in position 2 with 4 points from 2 matches. They are below Independente EC AP who have 7 points and above who have points.
have scored 5 goals and conceded 2 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of 3 goals this season.
MACAPA AP'S POSITION
Macapa AP is in position 3 with 2 points from 2 matches. They are below who have points and above Sao Paulo AP who have 2 points.
Macapa Ap have scored 2 goals and conceded 2 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of 0 goals this season.
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