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DEFENSA JUSTICIA vs NEWELL'S OLD BOYS NG SUREBET PREDICTION

A detailed Defensa Justicia vs Newell'S Old Boys NG sure prediction with expert opinion, H2H matches, statistical analysis for this Argentina, Primera Division, Torneo Inicial match on 25-Aug-2021

Defensa Justicia

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DATE:

25 August 2021 at 22:30:00

Newell'S Old Boys

COUNTRY:

Argentina

LEAGUE

Primera Division, Torneo Inicial

TIME:

10:30 PM

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1X2 PREDICTION

HOME WIN:

57%

AVR. ODDS:

2.32

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

DRAW:

31%

AVR. ODDS:

3.39

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

AWAY WIN:

11%

AVR. ODDS:

3.09

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

EXPERT TIPS FOR THIS MATCH

Defensa Justicia and Newell'S Old Boys might find it hard to score each other in this game. It may be much wiser if you steered clear of a goal-goal prediction and stuck with no-goal (NG prediction). 

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This is informed by the fact that both Defensa Justicia and Newell'S Old Boys have good defenses and at least one of them have demonstrated in the recent past weak defense that may see them goal-less by the end of this duel. All 3 major Surebet prediction models have indicated a possible ng in this Defensa Justicia vs Newell'S Old Boys match. 


Poisson prediction model shows there is a 55.02% chance for the outcome while the ELO Ratings model shows a 74.95% chance for the same. Finally, 99.99% of the Monte Carlo simulation runs for this match resulted in ng. This pretty much consolidates the prediction of a ng in this game. 


The odds for Ng outcome on major betting sites are, on average, 1.81 with an implied bookmaker probability of 55.25%. Considering that the surebet probability for the Ng outcome for this Defensa Justicia vs Newell'S Old Boys match is 76.65%, then this bet is a value bet. 


If you play this bet then you you gain expected value by 21.41%The expected value for a NG prediction is denoted as EV(NG) and is calculated by multiplying the amount of stake by the odds and again by the probability of winning then subtracting the result of multiplying the stake and the probability of losing. 


By using 100 as your sample stake, by calculating the EV as explained, we get the expected value for a NG in this Defensa Justicia vs Newell'S Old Boys match is 115.39 which is positive and therefore a good bet.

DEFENSA JUSTICIA vs NEWELL'S OLD BOYS NG SUREBET PREDICTION

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GG/NG(BTTS) PREDICTION

GG(BTTS):

23%

AVR. ODDS:

1.89

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

NO GOAL:

AVR. ODDS:

77%

1.81

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

OVER/UNDER 1.5 GOALS PREDICTION

OVER 1.5:

40%

AVR. ODDS:

1.39

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

UNDER 1.5:

52%

AVR. ODDS:

3

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS PREDICTION

OVER 2.5:

25%

AVR. ODDS:

2.12

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

UNDER 2.5:

AVR. ODDS:

VALUEBET?

75%

1.65

Value Bet

OVER/UNDER 3.5 GOALS PREDICTION

OVER 3.5:

11%

AVR. ODDS:

3.72

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

UNDER 3.5:

89%

AVR. ODDS:

1.23

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

MATCH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS

DEFENSA JUSTICIA VS NEWELL'S OLD BOYS LATEST HEAD TO HEAD MATCHES

Defensa Justicia and NewellS have met 6 times recently since 05-Jul-2016. Below is a breakdown of those matches and the results. Note that these matches will play a big role in the Defensa Justicia vs NewellS prediction.
14/03/21 - Defensa Justicia [4 : 0] Newells
11-Oct-2019 - Newells [2 : 0] Defensa Justicia
13/11/18 - Newells [0 : 0] Defensa Justicia
05-May-2018 - Newells [1 : 0] Defensa Justicia
03-Nov-2017 - Defensa Justicia [1 : 0] Newells
05-Jul-2016 - Newells [0 : 1] Defensa Justicia

DEFENSA JUSTICIA LAST 10 MATCHES

Below are Defensa Justicia's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Independiente drew with Defensa Justicia (0-0) on 21/08/21
Then Defensa Justicia won against Sarmiento (4-2) on 17/08/21
Aldosivi won against Defensa Justicia (1-0) on 08-Oct-2021
Not surprisingly Defensa Justicia won against Gimnasia La Plata (3-2) on 08-Jan-2021
Velez Sarsfield drew with Defensa Justicia (0-0) on 28/07/21
Defensa Justicia lost to Godoy Cruz (1-2) on 25/07/21
Then Flamengo won against Defensa Justicia (4-1) on 22/07/21
Huracan won against Defensa Justicia (2-1) on 18/07/21
Defensa Justicia lost to Flamengo (0-1) on 15/07/21
In the earliest match listed here Defensa Justicia drew with Ind. del Valle (1-1) on 28/05/21

RECENT MATCHES - AWAY TEAM

Below are Newell'S Old Boys's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Newells drew with Rosario Central (1-1) on 22/08/21
Racing won against Newells (2-0) on 16/08/21
Then Newells won against Platense (1-0) on 08-Jul-2021
Patronato drew with Newells (0-0) on 08-Feb-2021
Newells won against Estudiantes La Plata (4-2) on 30/07/21
Then Argentinos Juniors won against Newells (1-0) on 27/07/21
Newells won against Talleres Cordoba (3-2) on 17/07/21
Newells drew with Goianiense GO (1-1) on 26/05/21
Once more Newells won against Palestino (3-1) on 21/05/21
Newells lost to Sarmiento (0-1) on 17/05/21

DEFENSA JUSTICIA'S POSITION

Defensa Justicia is in position 15 with 8 points from 7 matches. They are below Sarmiento who have 9 points and above Atletico Tucuman who have 8 points.
have scored 9 goals and conceded 9 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of 0 goals this season.

NEWELL'S OLD BOYS'S POSITION

Newells is in position 11 with 11 points from 7 matches. They are below Patronato who have 11 points and above Godoy Cruz who have 10 points.
Newell'S Old Boys have scored 9 goals and conceded 8 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of 1 goals this season.

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