NEWCASTLE vs LEEDS GG SUREBET PREDICTION
A detailed Newcastle vs Leeds GG sure prediction with expert opinion, H2H matches, statistical analysis for this England, Premier Leaguematch on 17-Sep-2021
Newcastle
DATE:
17 September 2021 at 22:00:00
Leeds
COUNTRY:
England
LEAGUE
Premier League
TIME:
10:00 PM
1X2 PREDICTION
HOME WIN:
48%
AVR. ODDS:
3.01
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
DRAW:
24%
AVR. ODDS:
3.57
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
AWAY WIN:
27%
AVR. ODDS:
2.26
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
EXPERT TIPS FOR THIS MATCH
Given historical data, head to head matches and results from similar past matches, Surebet prediction systems and expert opinion have all converged on the conclusion that both teams will be able to score in this match, therefore validating a GG prediction (BTTS).
Both Newcastle and Leeds have good strikers and have equally vulnerable defenses. It is quite unlikely that any of them will fail to score in this game. All 3 major Surebet prediction models have indicated a possible gg in this Newcastle vs Leeds match.
Poisson prediction model shows there is a 50.70% chance for the outcome while the ELO Ratings model shows a 54.19% chance for the same. Finally, 54.35% of the Monte Carlo simulation runs for this match resulted in gg. This pretty much consolidates the prediction of a gg in this game.
The odds for Gg outcome on major betting sites are, on average, 1.53 with an implied bookmaker probability of 65.36%. Considering that the surebet probability for the GG outcome for this Newcastle vs Leeds match is 53.08%, then this bet is not a value bet.If you play this bet then you lose expected value by -12.28%The expected value for a GG prediction is denoted as EV(GG) and is calculated by multiplying the amount of stake by the odds and again by the probability of winning then subtracting the result of multiplying the stake and the probability of losing.
By using 100 as your sample stake, by calculating the EV as explained, we get the expected value for a GG in this Newcastle vs Leeds match is 34.28 which is positive and therefore a good bet.
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GG/NG(BTTS) PREDICTION
GG(BTTS):
53%
AVR. ODDS:
1.53
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
NO GOAL:
AVR. ODDS:
47%
2.34
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 1.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 1.5:
40%
AVR. ODDS:
1.06
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
UNDER 1.5:
24%
AVR. ODDS:
3.93
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 2.5:
51%
AVR. ODDS:
1.62
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
UNDER 2.5:
AVR. ODDS:
VALUEBET?
48%
2.16
Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 3.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 3.5:
29%
AVR. ODDS:
2.84
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
UNDER 3.5:
70%
AVR. ODDS:
1.61
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
MATCH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS
NEWCASTLE VS LEEDS LATEST HEAD TO HEAD MATCHES
Newcastle and Leeds United have met 6 times recently since 31/07/11. Below is a breakdown of those matches and the results. Note that these matches will play a big role in the Newcastle vs Leeds United prediction.
26/01/21 - Newcastle [1 : 2] Leeds United
16/12/20 - Leeds United [5 : 2] Newcastle
14/04/17 - Newcastle [1 : 1] Leeds United
20/11/16 - Leeds United [0 : 2] Newcastle
25/09/13 - Newcastle [2 : 0] Leeds United
31/07/11 - Leeds United [3 : 2] Newcastle
NEWCASTLE LAST 10 MATCHES
Below are Newcastle's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Man Utd won against Newcastle (4-1) on 09-Nov-2021
Then Newcastle drew with Southampton (2-2) on 28/08/21
Newcastle lost to Burnley (3-4) on 25/08/21
Not surprisingly Aston Villa won against Newcastle (2-0) on 21/08/21
Newcastle lost to West Ham (2-4) on 15/08/21
Newcastle won against Norwich (3-0) on 08-Jul-2021
Then Burton lost to Newcastle (0-2) on 30/07/21
Rotherham drew with Newcastle (1-1) on 27/07/21
Doncaster lost to Newcastle (2-3) on 23/07/21
In the earliest match listed here York won against Newcastle (1-0) on 18/07/21
RECENT MATCHES - AWAY TEAM
Below are Leeds's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Leeds United lost to Liverpool (0-3) on 09-Dec-2021
Burnley drew with Leeds United (1-1) on 29/08/21
Then Leeds United won against Crewe (3-0) on 24/08/21
Leeds United drew with Everton (2-2) on 21/08/21
Man Utd won against Leeds United (5-1) on 14/08/21
Then Leeds United drew with Villarreal (2-2) on 08-Jul-2021
Ajax won against Leeds United (4-0) on 08-Apr-2021
Leeds United lost to Real Betis (2-3) on 31/07/21
Once more Fleetwood won against Leeds United (2-1) on 30/07/21
Blackburn drew with Leeds United (1-1) on 28/07/21
NEWCASTLE'S POSITION
Newcastle is in position 19 with 1 points from 4 matches. They are below Burnley who have 1 points and above Norwich who have 0 points.
have scored 5 goals and conceded 12 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of -7 goals this season.
LEEDS'S POSITION
Leeds United is in position 17 with 2 points from 4 matches. They are below Arsenal who have 3 points and above who have points.
Leeds have scored 4 goals and conceded 11 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of -7 goals this season.
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