Asian Handicap Tips & Predictions
Asian Handicap Tips & predictions are expert forecasts of betting outcomes of matches where one team is considered significantly weaker than the other and unlike Euro handicaps, these have no provisions for draws.
This betting method which is very popular in Asian countries is used by bookies in a bid to make a game more even as Bookmakers state on their website. An example of the Asian Handicap is the Draw No-bet where you bet on either team to win and you are refunded in case of a draw.
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ASIAN HANDICAP PREDICTIONS EXPLAINED
Asian handicaps originated in Asia and spread across the globe like wildfire. They are among the most profitable betting markets in the world. Their attractiveness usually comes in the knowledge that there are many options involved after a match has been played. Yes, like any other betting market it is still possible to lose money. This market, however, enables you to get some of your stakes back if some conditions are met. You can also win half of your bet or get a refund for half of your stake.
These options don't only mitigate risk but also lead to impressive profits if you do everything right as far as Asian handicap predictions are concerned.
WHAT ARE THEY?
Asian handicap predictions are forecasts about the possible outcomes of a football game, with options of getting your money back, getting half the money back, winning half the profit or the full profit if certain conditions are met.
There are different types of Asian handicap predictions. How they apply and their benefits will be discussed in the following sections.
TYPES OF ASIAN HANDICAP PREDICTIONS
There are basically 2 denotations for Asian handicap predictions that span across 4 categories.
The denotations are (-) or negative and (+) or positive. A stronger team in Asian handicap predictions are denoted with (-) while the weaker team in Asian handicaps are denoted as (+).
The 4 categories that the denotations of Asian handicap predictions are:
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0.25
-
0.5
-
0.75
-
1 or full numbers
NEGATIVE ASIAN HANDICAP NOTATIONS
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AH(-0.25 - This kind of Asian handicap prediction means that you only win if your favorite team wins by 1 or more goals (goal difference). A draw leads to a 50% loss in stake and the other 50% is refunded to you. If the other team wins then you lose the whole stake amount.
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AH(-0.5) - This Asian handicap prediction means you win the full amount if your favorite team wins the match. If the teams draw or if the other team wins the match then you, without question, lose your full stake.
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AH(-0.75) - In this bet prediction you win the full amount if your preferred team win by a goal difference of 2 or more goals. If your team wins by only one goal then you win 50% of the profits and you get refunded 50% of your stake. A draw or a loss leads to an automatic loss of the full amount.
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AH(-1) - Here you win the full amount if your team wins by 2 or more goals in goal difference. A win by a single goal means you will be refunded your full bet amount. A draw or a loss means a full loss on your bet.
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AH(-1.25) - You win this bet if your favorite team wins by 2 or more goals goal difference. A win by only 1 goal leads to a win for 50% of your stake and a refund of the other 50% of your stake. A draw or loss for your team means a full loss on your Asian handicap prediction bet.
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AH(-1.5) - This handicap allows you to win the bet if your favorite team wins the match by more than 2 goals (difference). A win by only 1 goal, a draw or a loss means a loss for your full amount of stake.
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AH(-1.75) - This Asian handicap prediction means you win the full amount if your team wins with 3 or more goals than the opponent. A win by 2 goals more leads to a 50% win and 50% refund. A win by 1 more goal, draw or loss means a full loss on your stake.
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AH(-2) – This bet is won if your favorite team wins by 3 or more goals in terms of goal difference. If it wins by 2 more goals then you get a full refund of your stake. If the match ends with your team winning by a single goal, or the match draws or if the other team wins then you lose the full amount for this Asia handicap prediction.
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AH(-2.25) – This bet is won if your team wins by a goal difference of 3 or more. If they win with a goal difference of 2 then 50% of your bet is lost and the other 50% is refunded to you. A win by 1 goal, a draw or a loss leads to a loss of 100% of your stake amount on this Asian handicap prediction.
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AH(-2.5) – You win this bet only and only if your team wins by 3 or more in terms of goal difference. A win by 2 or 1 goals, a draw or a loss leads to an automatic loss for your full stake.
POSITIVE ASIAN HANDICAP NOTATIONS
The following 10 subcategories of Asian handicap predictions have +ve notations before them. This, therefore, means they refer to the weaker team. That is a very important point to remember.
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AH(+0.25) – This bet is won if your team wins the match. If the teams draw, you win 50% of the stake and lose the remaining 50%. A loss for your favorite team means a loss on the full amount.
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AH(+0.5) – You win this bet if your team wins the match or if the match ends in a draw. If your team gets defeated then you lose your full amount.
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AH(+0.75) – This Asian handicap prediction is won if your team wins or draws. If your team loses by only one goal then you lose only 50% of the stake and get refunded the other 50%. If your team loses by 2 or more goals then your bet is lost in full.
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AH(+1) – This bet is won if your team wins or draws. If it loses by a goal difference of 1 then you get refunded 100% of your stake. You lose the bet if your team loses by a goal difference of more than 1 goal.
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AH(+1.25) – You win this type of Asian handicap prediction if your team wins or draws in the game. If they lose by a goal difference of just one goal then you win 50% of the profits and get refunded the other 50%. A loss by 2 or more goals leads to a loss of the full amount.
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AH(+1.5) – This kind of Asian handicap is won if your team wins, draws or loses the game by a goal difference of 1. If they lose by 2 or more goals then you lose the whole stake.
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AH(+1.75) – You win this type of Asian handicap predictions if your team wins, draws or loses by only 1 goal. If they lose by a goal difference of 2 then you lose 50% of the stake and get a refund of the other 50%. A loss by 3 or more goals means a loss of the full stake.
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AH(+2) – This handicap prediction is won if your team wins, draws or loses by a goal difference of 1. If they lose by a goal difference of 2 then you get a refund of the full amount. If your tea loses by 3 or more goals then you lose the full amount.
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AH(+2.25) – This sweet bet is won if your team wins, draws or loses by exactly 1 (goal difference, not absolute goals). If they lose by a goal difference of 2 then you win 50% of the profits and get a refund of the other 50% stake amount. You only lose the whole stake if your team loses by 3 or more goals.
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AH(+2.5) – You win this bet if your preferred team wins, draws or loses by a goal difference of 1 or 2 goals. You lose the full amount if they lose by a goal difference of 3 or more goals.
MOST COMMON ASIAN HANDICAP PREDICTIONS
As you will notice, bookmakers do not include all the options of the Asian handicap prediction market for each and every match. They select the most common ones and the ones with average odds; not too low or too high. Sometimes, of course, they include low odds or high odds options but not always.
Nevertheless, it is because they find some types of this market too sweet on the punters' side. Consider the AH(+2.5) market for instance. It is really sweet, isn’t it?
You will, however, have to make do with the odds provided. The good thing is that you now understand the various types. If you did not understand, feel free to repeat this article as many times as you like.
With further inquiry, you will also find out that Asian Handicaps can also be used in conjunction with over and under predictions, GG and NG predictions, etc.
In fact, nobody ever reads this and understands everything at once. It takes time and willpower to understand. Remember however that the roots might be bitter but the fruits are sweet. There is a reason betting experts and professionals prefer this betting market than any other.
Below is a table showing a summary of the information above for the most common Asian handicap
predictions:
Good things come hard, I was told by my grandmother.
Enough of that for now, let us proceed to how to do match analysis for the Asian handicap market.
HOW TO ANALYZE AN ASIAN HANDICAP PREDICTION
To easily understand how to do mathematical and scientific analysis for this betting market that many consider hard to understand, I will take you through each and every step to understand how to come up with mathematically proven Asian handicap predictions.
EXAMPLE:
Let us consider an upcoming match between Kortrijk and Charleroi. The 1X2 odds are:
Home Win: 2.4
Draw: 3.42
Away win: 2.89
Using this match as an example, I will walk you through all the types and meaning of the Asian handicap denotations and predictions.
Step 1: Find the average number of goals scored by involved teams in past similar matches
Step 2: Use the means as the (λ) to get a table of Poisson probabilities for 6 goals for each team
Step 3: Calculate the probabilities for each Asian handicap notation
Step 4: Filter to remove AH notations not provided by the bookmaker
Step 5: Compare the odds and the resultant probabilities to get value bets
Step 6: Make your Asian handicap prediction
Step 1: Find the average number of goals scored by involved teams in past similar matches
The mean number of goals by each individual team for similar matches in the past will give a picture of the expected number of goals to be scored in this game. According to the mighty Surebet database, Kortrijk has managed 1.39 goals at home while hosting Charleroi who has managed 0.85 goals while away against Kortrijk. In fact out of 13 head to head matches the two have played with Kortrjk at home, Kortrijk has won 6 times, Charleroi 3 times and they have drawn 4 times. This seems like a perfect match to do our mathematical Asian handicap prediction on.
Step 2: Use the means as the (λ) to get a table of Poisson probabilities for 6 goals for each team
Using the means as (λ), we get the table below that represents Poisson probabilities:
Using this table, we are able to calculate the joint probabilities that reprwesent possible match outcomes as follows:
Step 3: Calculate the probabilities for each Asian handicap notation
Using the above processed tables, we can now calculate the cumulative probabilities for each of the Asian handicap prediction notations as follows:
Step 4: Filter to remove AH notations not provided by the bookmaker
The 4th step is to filter out those notations that the bookmaker has ignored for various reasons.
For the game above and using Sportpesa as the bookmaker, we remain with the following Asian handicaps:
Step 5: Compare the odds and the resultant probabilities to get value bets
Now we are comparing the Surebet probabilities with the perceived probabilities of the bookmaker to notice value bets.
Since we have enough information and our prediction models are on point, value bets are those Asian handicaps where the bookmarker has registered higher odds than it is supposed to be. To notice them, we look at the implied probabilities for each handicap which is calculated by finding the inverse of the odds.
Whenever the bookmaker probabilities are found to be less than our own then that is a value bet. The results are shown on the table below:
Step 6: Make your Asian handicap prediction
Of the 5 Asian handicaps on the table, the most remarkable difference is shown for the -0.75 handicap where the real probability is 50.41% while the bookmaker’s probability is 35.71% which is implied by the odds 2.8. This bet is therefore considered a very good value bet.
Remember -0.75 Asian handicap means you win the full amount if Kortrijk wins by a goal difference of 2 or more goals. If they win by only one goal then you win 50% of the profits and you get refunded 50% of your stake. A draw or a loss leads to an automatic loss of the full amount. Given Kortrijk have won more times in their head to head matches than they have drawn or had Charleroi win, this bet is very good Asian handicap prediction.
CONCLUSION
As you have seen, the Asian handicaps are not as hard as they are being perceived by many. They are a profitable betting market and they carry the comfort of knowing that there are chances for winning half the bet, getting half refunds and so on. The Asian handicap predictions are used by experts who bet to make money and not to have fun with the bookmaker.
If you want to win big with this awesome betting market simply subscribe to one of the packages on the Surebet Pricing page and you will be very happy with the service.
If you have comments or questions please feel free to send me an email on lamechnyands@gmail.com or on the comment section at the bottom of the page.