HOME WIN TIPS

We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a home win in this Mohammedan Sporting Club Dhaka vs Bashundhara Kings match. The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 46.17% probability for a Home Win outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 46.38% probability for the same outccome.

The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 46.35% chance for a home win outcome. This Mohammedan Sporting Club Dhaka vs Bashundhara Kings match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all. To find if the Home Win bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied Home Win bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same.

The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.82 with an implied bookmaker probability of 54.95%. The calculated Surebet probability for the Home Win outcome for this Mohammedan Sporting Club Dhaka vs Bashundhara Kings match is 46.30%, meaning this bet is not a value bet.

In case you place this bet, you may be about to lose expected value by -8.64%. Expected Value, EV(Home Win), for a Home Win result for this Mohammedan Sporting Club Dhaka vs Bashundhara Kings match is calculated as follows:

Let P(Home Win) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is;

P(Home Win) * 100* 1.82 where 1.82 are the decimal odds for this outcome. Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a Home Win for Mohammedan Sporting Club Dhaka vs Bashundhara Kings, EV(Home Win) to be 46.30% * 100 * 1.82, which translates to 30.56. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.