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SPEZIA vs SALERNITANA HOME SUREBET PREDICTION

A detailed Spezia vs Salernitana GG sure prediction with expert opinion, H2H matches, statistical analysis for this Italy, Serie Amatch on 16-Oct-2021

Spezia

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DATE:

16 October 2021 at 16:00:00

Salernitana

COUNTRY:

Italy

LEAGUE

Serie A

TIME:

4:00 PM

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1X2 PREDICTION

HOME WIN:

60%

AVR. ODDS:

2.16

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

DRAW:

23%

AVR. ODDS:

3.36

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

AWAY WIN:

17%

AVR. ODDS:

3.41

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

EXPERT TIPS FOR THIS MATCH

Strong recent and past performances that Spezia have demonstrated lead us to conclude that the prospects for a home win are quite high for this match. Expert football prediction sites have also supported this prediction by far and large. 



Salernitana might not be able to record either a win or a draw in this match. It is however prudent to compare diffrent predictions to find the ones with the highest probabilities. True profits come from predictions with over 90% chance of coming true. Some of our tips are 100% sure and guaranteed but can only be accessed by VIP members. 




You can also become a VIP member once you subscribe. Note also that you do not always have to use the win-draw-win market. It might be popular but not necessarily the best or least risky. See all predictions today to see tips from other betting markets. All 3 major Surebet prediction models have indicated a possible home win in this Spezia vs Salernitana match. 




Poisson prediction model shows there is a 48.26% chance for the outcome while the ELO Ratings model shows a 60.74% chance for the same. Finally, 70.59% of the Monte Carlo simulation runs for this match resulted in home win. This pretty much consolidates the prediction of a home win in this game. 




The odds for Home Win outcome on major betting sites are, on average, 2.16 with an implied bookmaker probability of 46.30%. Considering that the surebet probability for the Home Win outcome for this Spezia vs Salernitana match is 59.86%, then this bet is a value bet. 




If you play this bet then you gain expected value by 13.57%The expected value for a Home Win prediction is denoted as EV(Home Win) and is calculated by multiplying the amount of stake by the odds and again by the probability of winning then subtracting the result of multiplying the stake and the probability of losing. 





By using 100 as your sample stake, by calculating the EV as explained, we get the expected value for a Home Win in this Spezia vs Salernitana match is 89.16 which is positive and therefore a good bet.

SPEZIA vs SALERNITANA HOME SUREBET PREDICTION

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GG/NG(BTTS) PREDICTION

GG(BTTS):

46%

AVR. ODDS:

1.66

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

NO GOAL:

AVR. ODDS:

54%

2.09

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

OVER/UNDER 1.5 GOALS PREDICTION

OVER 1.5:

40%

AVR. ODDS:

1.18

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

UNDER 1.5:

27%

AVR. ODDS:

3.45

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS PREDICTION

OVER 2.5:

48%

AVR. ODDS:

1.81

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

UNDER 2.5:

AVR. ODDS:

VALUEBET?

52%

1.9

Not a Value Bet

OVER/UNDER 3.5 GOALS PREDICTION

OVER 3.5:

27%

AVR. ODDS:

3.18

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

UNDER 3.5:

73%

AVR. ODDS:

1.42

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

MATCH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS

SPEZIA VS SALERNITANA LATEST HEAD TO HEAD MATCHES

Salernitana and Spezia have met 6 times recently since 23/09/17. Below is a breakdown of those matches and the results. Note that these matches will play a big role in the Salernitana vs Spezia prediction.
31/07/20 - Salernitana [1 : 2] Spezia
29/12/19 - Spezia [2 : 1] Salernitana
04-Feb-2019 - Spezia [2 : 1] Salernitana
11-Oct-2018 - Salernitana [1 : 0] Spezia
23/02/18 - Spezia [3 : 0] Salernitana
23/09/17 - Salernitana [2 : 0] Spezia

SPEZIA LAST 10 MATCHES

Below are Spezia's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Hellas Verona won against Spezia (4-0) on 10-Mar-2021
Then Spezia lost to Milan (1-2) on 25/09/21
Spezia lost to Juventus (2-3) on 22/09/21
Not surprisingly Venezia lost to Spezia (1-2) on 19/09/21
Spezia lost to Udinese (0-1) on 09-Dec-2021
Lazio won against Spezia (6-1) on 28/08/21
Then Cagliari drew with Spezia (2-2) on 23/08/21
Pordenone lost to Spezia (1-3) on 13/08/21
Spezia drew with Roma (2-2) on 23/05/21
In the earliest match listed here Spezia won against Torino (4-1) on 15/05/21

RECENT MATCHES - AWAY TEAM

Below are Salernitana's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Salernitana won against Genoa (1-0) on 10-Feb-2021
Sassuolo won against Salernitana (1-0) on 26/09/21
Then Salernitana drew with Hellas Verona (2-2) on 22/09/21
Salernitana lost to Atalanta (0-1) on 18/09/21
Torino won against Salernitana (4-0) on 09-Dec-2021
Then Salernitana lost to Roma (0-4) on 29/08/21
Bologna won against Salernitana (3-2) on 22/08/21
Salernitana won against Reggina (2-0) on 16/08/21
Once more Aston Villa won against Salernitana (3-1) on 08-Aug-2021
Salernitana lost to Gubbio (0-1) on 25/07/21

SPEZIA'S POSITION

Spezia is in position 19 with 4 points from 7 matches. They are below who have points and above Cagliari who have 3 points.
have scored 8 goals and conceded 19 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of -11 goals this season.

SALERNITANA'S POSITION

Salernitana is in position 18 with 4 points from 7 matches. They are below Venezia who have 5 points and above who have points.
Salernitana have scored 5 goals and conceded 15 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of -10 goals this season.

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