<p class="font_7">Given the historical matches of these teams, it is almost clear that at least 2 goals will be scored in this match. Regardless of the low odds, I bet you might want to form a multi bet with this over 1.5 Prediction for Hull City vs Derby. The over/under 1.5 goals tips for this match is therefore clearly, over 1.5 goals.&nbsp;</p>
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<p class="font_7">All 3 major Surebet prediction models have indicated a possible over 1.5 in this Hull City vs Derby match. Poisson prediction model shows there is a 71.33% chance for the outcome while the ELO Ratings model shows a 64.05% chance for the same. Finally, 55.34% of the Monte Carlo simulation runs for this match resulted in over 1.5. This pretty much consolidates the prediction of a over 1.5 in this game.&nbsp;</p>
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<p class="font_7">The odds for Over 1.5 outcome on major betting sites are, on average, 1.30065359477124 with an implied bookmaker probability of 76.88%. Considering that the surebet probability for the OVER 1.5 outcome for this Hull City vs Derby match is 63.57%, then this bet is not a value bet.If you play this bet then you lose expected value by -13.31%The expected value for a OVER 1.5 prediction is denoted as EV(OVER 1.5) and is calculated by multiplying the amount of stake by the odds and again by the probability of winning then subtracting the result of multiplying the stake and the probability of losing.&nbsp;</p>
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<p class="font_7">By using 100 as your sample stake, by calculating the EV as explained, we get the expected value for a OVER 1.5 in this Hull City vs Derby match is 46.25 which is positive and therefore a good bet.</p>