UNIV DE CHILE vs MELIPILLA SURE PREDICTION
A detailed Univ De Chile vs Melipilla sure prediction with expert opinion, H2H matches, statistical analysis for this Chile, Primera Division match on 21-Jul-2021
Univ De Chile
DATE:
21 July 2021 at 03:30:00
Melipilla
COUNTRY:
Chile
LEAGUE
Primera Division
TIME:
3:30 AM
1X2 PREDICTION
HOME WIN:
21%
AVR. ODDS:
1.78
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
DRAW:
17%
AVR. ODDS:
3.26
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
AWAY WIN:
58%
AVR. ODDS:
4.22
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
EXPERT TIPS FOR THIS MATCH
We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a away win in this Univ De Chile vs Melipilla match. The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 72.30% probability for a Away Win outcome.
The ELO Ratings model came through with a 59.31% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 43.29% chance for a away win outcome. This Univ De Chile vs Melipilla match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all. To find if the Away Win bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied Away Win bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 4.22 with an implied bookmaker probability of 23.70%.
The calculated Surebet probability for the Away Win outcome for this Univ De Chile vs Melipilla match is 58.30%, meaning this bet is a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may gain expected value by 34.60%Expected Value, EV(Away Win), for a Away Win result for this Univ De Chile vs Melipilla match is calculated as follows: Let P(Away Win) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(Away Win) * 100* 4.22 where 4.22 are the decimal odds for this outcome. Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a Away Win for Univ De Chile vs Melipilla, EV(Away Win) to be 58.30% * 100 * 4.22, which translates to 204.32.
This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.Melipilla is expected to outperform Univ De Chile in this match. Home advantage may not help Univ De Chile in this game. With odds of 4.22 you stand to win a fairly good amount from this tip. This is the best sure bet prediction for this match.
Note that you should also consider other betting markets other than 1X2 predictions or bets. Asian handicaps and European handicaps, for instance, can make you better profits from a match like this.
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GG/NG(BTTS) PREDICTION
GG(BTTS):
65%
AVR. ODDS:
2.04
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
NO GOAL:
AVR. ODDS:
32%
1.69
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 1.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 1.5:
40%
AVR. ODDS:
1.44
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
UNDER 1.5:
10%
AVR. ODDS:
2.89
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 2.5:
72%
AVR. ODDS:
2.21
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
UNDER 2.5:
AVR. ODDS:
VALUEBET?
25%
1.59
Not a Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 3.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 3.5:
53%
AVR. ODDS:
3.88
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
UNDER 3.5:
45%
AVR. ODDS:
1.19
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
MATCH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS
UNIV DE CHILE VS MELIPILLA LATEST HEAD TO HEAD MATCHES
U De Chile and Melipilla have met 6 times recently since 24/04/05. Below is a breakdown of those matches and the results. Note that these matches will play a big role in the U De Chile vs Melipilla prediction.
26/07/08 - U de Chile [4 : 1] Melipilla
24/02/08 - Melipilla [0 : 3] U de Chile
27/09/07 - Melipilla [1 : 3] U de Chile
04-Jun-2007 - U de Chile [3 : 0] Melipilla
17/09/05 - U de Chile [2 : 1] Melipilla
24/04/05 - Melipilla [1 : 1] U de Chile
UNIV DE CHILE LAST 10 MATCHES
Below are Univ De Chile's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Arturo Fernandez Vial won against U de Chile (5-4) on 07-Apr-2021
Then U de Chile drew with Arturo Fernandez Vial (1-1) on 07-Feb-2021
SL de Quillota lost to U de Chile (1-3) on 28/06/21
Not surprisingly U de Chile won against SL de Quillota (1-0) on 25/06/21
Palestino drew with U de Chile (0-0) on 06-May-2021
Audax won against U de Chile (2-1) on 06-Jan-2021
Then U de Chile lost to Everton (0-1) on 24/05/21
Antofagasta lost to U de Chile (1-2) on 05-Sep-2021
U de Chile won against Santiago Wanderers (1-0) on 05-Apr-2021
In the earliest match listed here Colo-Colo won against U de Chile (1-0) on 25/04/21
RECENT MATCHES - AWAY TEAM
Below are Melipilla's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Nublense drew with Melipilla (0-0) on 27/06/21
Melipilla lost to Nublense (0-1) on 23/06/21
Then Melipilla won against OHiggins (3-1) on 06-Jul-2021
Deportes La Serena won against Melipilla (5-1) on 29/05/21
Melipilla drew with Antofagasta (1-1) on 23/05/21
Then Santiago Wanderers lost to Melipilla (0-3) on 05-Sep-2021
Melipilla won against Universidad Catolica (2-0) on 05-Mar-2021
Audax won against Melipilla (1-0) on 27/04/21
Once more Melipilla lost to Palestino (0-1) on 16/04/21
Union Espanola lost to Melipilla (0-2) on 04-Oct-2021
UNIV DE CHILE'S POSITION
U de Chile is in position 12 with 12 points from 9 matches. They are below Everton who have 13 points and above Cobresal who have 12 points.
have scored 7 goals and conceded 7 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of 0 goals this season.
MELIPILLA'S POSITION
Melipilla is in position 10 with 14 points from 10 matches. They are below Antofagasta who have 15 points and above who have points.
Melipilla have scored 13 goals and conceded 12 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of 1 goals this season.
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