AC AJACCIO vs CAEN OVER 1.5 SUREBET PREDICTION
A detailed Ac Ajaccio vs Caen OVER 1.5 sure prediction with expert opinion, H2H matches, statistical analysis for this France, Ligue 2 match on 25-Aug-2021
Ac Ajaccio
DATE:
25 August 2021 at 20:00:00
Caen
COUNTRY:
France
LEAGUE
Ligue 2
TIME:
8:00 PM
1X2 PREDICTION
HOME WIN:
43%
AVR. ODDS:
2.34
VALUEBET?
0.077603113
DRAW:
31%
AVR. ODDS:
3.26
VALUEBET?
'-0.061212407
AWAY WIN:
32%
AVR. ODDS:
3.11
VALUEBET?
'-0.074474828
EXPERT TIPS FOR THIS MATCH
Given the historical matches of these teams, it is almost clear that at least 2 goals will be scored in this match. Regardless of the low odds, I bet you might want to form a multi bet with this over 1.5 Prediction for Ac Ajaccio vs Caen.
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The over/under 1.5 goals tips for this match is therefore clearly, over 1.5 goals. All 3 major Surebet prediction models have indicated a possible over 1.5 in this Ac Ajaccio vs Caen match. Poisson prediction model shows there is a 68.07% chance for the outcome while the ELO Ratings model shows a 74.53% chance for the same. Finally, 79.61% of the Monte Carlo simulation runs for this match resulted in over 1.5.
This pretty much consolidates the prediction of a over 1.5 in this game. The odds for Over 1.5 outcome on major betting sites are, on average, 1.52287581699346 with an implied bookmaker probability of 65.67%. Considering that the surebet probability for the OVER 1.5 outcome for this Ac Ajaccio vs Caen match is 74.07%, then this bet is a value bet. If you play this bet then you you gain expected value by 8.40%.
The expected value for a OVER 1.5 prediction is denoted as EV(OVER 1.5) and is calculated by multiplying the amount of stake by the odds and again by the probability of winning then subtracting the result of multiplying the stake and the probability of losing.
By using 100 as your sample stake, by calculating the EV as explained, we get the expected value for a OVER 1.5 in this Ac Ajaccio vs Caen match is 86.86 which is positive and therefore a good bet.
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GG/NG(BTTS) PREDICTION
GG(BTTS):
49%
AVR. ODDS:
2.03
VALUEBET?
0.02043632
NO GOAL:
AVR. ODDS:
58%
1.71
VALUEBET?
'-0.100284299
OVER/UNDER 1.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 1.5:
40%
AVR. ODDS:
1.52
VALUEBET?
0.084047898
UNDER 1.5:
36%
AVR. ODDS:
2.8
VALUEBET?
'-0.100284936
OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 2.5:
43%
AVR. ODDS:
2.33
VALUEBET?
0.066973448
UNDER 2.5:
AVR. ODDS:
VALUEBET?
65%
1.54
'-0.147950466
OVER/UNDER 3.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 3.5:
24%
AVR. ODDS:
4.09
VALUEBET?
0.03471003
UNDER 3.5:
87%
AVR. ODDS:
1.15
VALUEBET?
'-0.151916913
MATCH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS
AC AJACCIO VS CAEN LATEST HEAD TO HEAD MATCHES
Caen and Ac Ajaccio have met 6 times recently since 21/01/14. Below is a breakdown of those matches and the results. Note that these matches will play a big role in the Caen vs Ac Ajaccio prediction.
07-Oct-2021 - Caen [0 : 0] AC Ajaccio
16/01/21 - AC Ajaccio [1 : 0] Caen
29/08/20 - Caen [1 : 0] AC Ajaccio
24/01/20 - Caen [0 : 1] AC Ajaccio
08-Sep-2019 - AC Ajaccio [1 : 2] Caen
21/01/14 - AC Ajaccio [0 : 2] Caen
AC AJACCIO LAST 10 MATCHES
Below are Ac Ajaccio's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Auxerre drew with AC Ajaccio (0-0) on 08-Jul-2021
Then AC Ajaccio won against Amiens (3-1) on 31/07/21
Toulouse drew with AC Ajaccio (2-2) on 24/07/21
Not surprisingly Nimes won against AC Ajaccio (1-0) on 17/07/21
Caen drew with AC Ajaccio (0-0) on 07-Oct-2021
Lavallois Mayenne lost to AC Ajaccio (1-2) on 07-Jul-2021
Then Chateauroux drew with AC Ajaccio (0-0) on 15/05/21
AC Ajaccio drew with Paris (1-1) on 05-Aug-2021
Pau drew with AC Ajaccio (0-0) on 05-Jan-2021
In the earliest match listed here AC Ajaccio drew with Amiens (2-2) on 24/04/21
RECENT MATCHES - AWAY TEAM
Below are Caen's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Caen won against Nancy-Lorraine (1-0) on 21/08/21
Caen lost to Sochaux-Montbeliard (1-2) on 08-Jul-2021
Then Niort lost to Caen (0-1) on 31/07/21
Caen won against Rodez (4-0) on 24/07/21
Bordeaux won against Caen (2-1) on 18/07/21
Then Nantes lost to Caen (0-1) on 17/07/21
Orleans lost to Caen (1-3) on 14/07/21
Caen drew with AC Ajaccio (0-0) on 07-Oct-2021
Once more Caen drew with Guingamp (1-1) on 07-Jul-2021
Caen won against Beauvais (2-0) on 07-Mar-2021
AC AJACCIO'S POSITION
AC Ajaccio is in position 12 with 5 points from 3 matches. They are below Niort who have 7 points and above Bastia who have 5 points.
have scored 5 goals and conceded 3 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of 2 goals this season.
CAEN'S POSITION
Caen is in position 5 with 9 points from 4 matches. They are below Sochaux-Montbeliard who have 10 points and above Auxerre who have 8 points.
Caen have scored 7 goals and conceded 2 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of 5 goals this season.
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