GG & NG TIPS

So how do you go about making sense of this data?

Here you now need to look at what we call nearest neighbors. This buys from the Nearest Neighbor algorithms from Machine Learning.

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It simply means (as the name suggests) looking at matches that had the most likeness with this upcoming match.

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It is very likely that you will hit this dead-end when doing GG/NG analysis for football betting. But the nearest neighbor method always comes handy. One way to look at it is that the outcomes from other matches are figuratively “far’ from predicting the outcome of this game. A better category to look at is the head to head matches because they seem like nearer neighbors to this upcoming game.

 

To make GG/NG predictions consider the results of the past 10 to 15 head to head matches

The 2nd thing is to look at the most recent results for similar matches between the two teams involved. This kind of analysis is known as head to head match analysis. There are teams, regardless of all factors, that find it difficult to score each other while others have a tendency(and a history) of scoring each other quite easily.

 

Remember, it does not matter if one team is stronger than the other. In case of a weak team up against a remarkably stronger team, it only takes the weaker team one goal for a bet of GG to be won.

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For the case of Umea FC vs Brage, if the number of GG or NG outcomes is more than the other, that is a better indicator for the prediction of the upcoming match.

 

 

Consider the league averages for GG/NG outcomes(Very essential for GG/NG tips)

Some leagues are notorious with either GG or NG outcomes. Below is a table with the number of matches that ended in either GG or NG for the last 10 years.

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The data shows that all the English leagues have almost similar tendencies of having matches ending with GG at around 47% while those that end with NG at 53%. Never mind that the bookers usually give lower odds for GG outcomes, since people generally assume that more matches could end with gg as opposed to ng. I am sure this leads to massive profits for the bookers.

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In some leagues, the percentage for GG can be as high as 70% you, therefore, should do your homework and see what is more likely in the league you are planning to make a GG/NG 1st & 2nd half predictions.

 

Use the Poisson distribution method to predict the number of goals for each team

After getting the picture, it is time now to make scientific predictions for this football game. To do this, you will first need the average number of goals the teams have scored in their recent 10 to 15 matches.

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Our database, for instance, shows that Umea FC has averaged 1.4 goals while at home for the last few years. Brage, on the other hand, has averaged 1 goal while playing away for the last 10 years.

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You now need to run a Poisson process with the means to predict the probabilities for each exact number of expected goals from each team in this upcoming match.

The results for the Poisson analysis gives the following data: