HOME WIN TIPS After analysing all the data and compiling and comparing expert opinions on this Caen vs AC Ajaccio match, we are well convinced that Caen is in better form, better motivated and has proven in the past their ability to dominate this game against AC Ajaccio. The surebet prediction for this game is therefore a home win. Note that there might be even better tips you can bet on today if you can be bold enough to subscribe for VIP tips. Besides, you might want to check out the GG/NG tips given their ability to increase betting profits for many punters. To find if the Home Win bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied Home Win bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.94 with an implied bookmaker probability of 51.55%. The calculated Surebet probability for the Home Win outcome for this Caen vs AC Ajaccio match is 42.90%, meaning this bet is not a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may be about to lose expected value by -8.65%. Expected Value, EV(Home Win), for a Home Win result for this Caen vs AC Ajaccio match is calculated as follows: Let P(Home Win) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(Home Win) * 100* 1.94 where 1.94 are the decimal odds for this outcome. Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a Home Win for Caen vs AC Ajaccio, EV(Home Win) to be 42.90% * 100 * 1.94, which translates to 26.11. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically. NG TIPS Caen and AC Ajaccio will probably not score each other in this game. It may be much wiser if you steered clear of a goal-goal prediction and stuck with no-goal (NG prediction). If recent outcomes for mathes played by these teams both at home and away is anything to go by, then both Caen and AC Ajaccio have no chance scoring each other. This is going to be a low scoring match and one team will walk away goalless. The GG/NG tips for this game is therefore No-goal. To find if the Ng bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied NG bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.63 with an implied bookmaker probability of 61.35%. The calculated Surebet probability for the Ng outcome for this Caen vs AC Ajaccio match is 73.03%, meaning this bet is a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may gain expected value by 11.68%. Expected Value, EV(NG), for a NG result for this Caen vs AC Ajaccio match is calculated as follows: Let P(NG) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(NG) * 100* 1.63 where 1.63 are the decimal odds for this outcome. Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a NG for Caen vs AC Ajaccio, EV(NG) to be 73.03% * 100 * 1.63, which translates to 92.07. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.