Ferro Co vs Santamarina Prediction
Ferro Co vs Santamarina Predictionwith match analysis, statistics and betting tips. This detailed prediction accompanies over 3 betting tips for the match. Ferro Co vs Santamarina are playing on �Argentina
Fero Co
Santamarina
DATE:
30 May 2022 at 01:10:00
TIME:
1:10 AM
COUNTRY:
Argentina
LEAGUE
Primera B Nacional
1X2 PREDICTION
HOME WIN:
46%
AVR. ODDS:
1.7
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
DRAW:
31%
AVR. ODDS:
3.41
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
AWAY WIN:
23%
AVR. ODDS:
5.33
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
EXPERT TIPS FOR THIS MATCH
HOME WIN TIPS
After analysing all the data and compiling and comparing expert opinions on this Ferro Co vs Santamarina match, we are well convinced that Ferro Co is in better form, better motivated and has proven in the past their ability to dominate this game against Santamarina. The surebet prediction for this game is therefore a home win.
Note that there might be even better tips you can bet on today if you can be bold enough to subscribe for VIP tips. Besides, you might want to check out the GG/NG tips given their ability to increase betting profits for many punters.
We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a home win in this Ferro Co vs Santamarina match.
The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 38.43% probability for a Home Win outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 46.01% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 51.16% chance for a home win outcome.
This Ferro Co vs Santamarina match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all.
To find if the Home Win bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied Home Win bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 2.1 with an implied bookmaker probability of 47.62%.
The calculated Surebet probability for the Home Win outcome for this Ferro Co vs Santamarina match is 45.20%, meaning this bet is not a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may be about to lose expected value by -2.42%.
Expected Value, EV(Home Win), for a Home Win result for this Ferro Co vs Santamarina match is calculated as follows:
Let P(Home Win) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is;
P(Home Win) * 100* 2.1 where 2.1 are the decimal odds for this outcome.
Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a Home Win for Ferro Co vs Santamarina, EV(Home Win) to be 45.20% * 100 * 2.1, which translates to 40.11. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.
DRAW TIPS
AWAY WIN TIPS
GG TIPS
NG TIPS
OVER 1.5 TIPS
Given the historical results of these teams, it is most likely that at least 2 goals will be scored in this match. Regardless of the low odds, I bet you might want to form a multi bet with this over 1.5 Prediction for Ferro Co vs Santamarina. The over OR under 1.5 goals tips for this match is therefore clearly, over 1.5 goals.
We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a over 1.5 in this Ferro Co vs Santamarina match.
The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 52.22% probability for a OVER 1.5 outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 70.74% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 82.54% chance for a over 1.5 outcome.
This Ferro Co vs Santamarina match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all.
To find if the Over 1.5 bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied OVER 1.5 bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.16 with an implied bookmaker probability of 86.21%.
The calculated Surebet probability for the Over 1.5 outcome for this Ferro Co vs Santamarina match is 68.50%, meaning this bet is not a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may be about to lose expected value by -17.71%.
Expected Value, EV(OVER 1.5), for a OVER 1.5 result for this Ferro Co vs Santamarina match is calculated as follows:
Let P(OVER 1.5) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is;
P(OVER 1.5) * 100* 1.16 where 1.16 are the decimal odds for this outcome.
Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a OVER 1.5 for Ferro Co vs Santamarina, EV(OVER 1.5) to be 68.50% * 100 * 1.16, which translates to 47.95. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.
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GG/NG(BTTS) PREDICTION
GG(BTTS):
37%
AVR. ODDS:
2.22
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
NO GOAL:
63%
AVR. ODDS:
1.59
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 1.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 1.5:
40%
AVR. ODDS:
1.54
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
UNDER 1.5:
43%
AVR. ODDS:
4.2
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 2.5:
32%
AVR. ODDS:
2.31
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
UNDER 2.5:
68%
AVR. ODDS:
1.76
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 3.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 3.5:
16%
AVR. ODDS:
4.05
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
UNDER 3.5:
84%
AVR. ODDS:
1.31
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
MATCH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS
FERRO CO VS SANTAMARINA PREDICTION HEAD TO HEAD MATCHES
CA FENIX VS CA RENTISTAS LATEST HEAD TO HEAD MATCHES
Fenix Montevideo and Rentistas have met 6 times recently since 20/09/15. Below is a breakdown of those matches and the results. Note that these matches will play a big role in the Fenix Montevideo vs Rentistas prediction.
09-Dec-2021 - Fenix Montevideo [3 : 1] Rentistas
16/05/21 - Rentistas [0 : 3] Fenix Montevideo
15/03/21 - Fenix Montevideo [3 : 0] Rentistas
13/09/20 - Rentistas [1 : 1] Fenix Montevideo
19/03/16 - Fenix Montevideo [1 : 1] Rentistas
20/09/15 - Rentistas [0 : 0] Fenix Montevideo
FERRO CO'S LAST 10 MATCHES
CA FENIX LAST 10 MATCHES
Below are Ca Fenix's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Dep Maldonado lost to Fenix Montevideo (0-1) on 21/05/22
Then Fenix Montevideo drew with Danubio (0-0) on 15/05/22
Nacional won against Fenix Montevideo (1-0) on 05-Oct-2022
Not surprisingly Fenix Montevideo won against Albion (2-1) on 24/04/22
Defensor won against Fenix Montevideo (2-1) on 16/04/22
Fenix Montevideo won against Cerrito (2-0) on 04-Oct-2022
Then Fenix Montevideo won against Cerro Largo (2-0) on 04-Mar-2022
River Plate won against Fenix Montevideo (3-1) on 20/03/22
Fenix Montevideo lost to Boston River (0-2) on 03-Dec-2022
In the earliest match listed here Colonia drew with Fenix Montevideo (1-1) on 26/02/22
RECENT MATCHES - AWAY TEAM
CA FENIX LAST 10 MATCHES
Below are Ca Fenix's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Rentistas won against Cerro Largo (2-0) on 21/05/22
Then River Plate won against Rentistas (1-0) on 13/05/22
Rentistas lost to Boston River (0-1) on 05-Aug-2022
Not surprisingly Colonia lost to Rentistas (0-3) on 25/04/22
Rentistas lost to Wanderers (1-3) on 18/04/22
Montevideo City won against Rentistas (2-0) on 04-Dec-2022
Then Rentistas drew with Penarol (0-0) on 04-Feb-2022
Liverpool M won against Rentistas (1-0) on 20/03/22
Cerrito lost to 1 (?-Rentistas) on 03-Dec-2022
In the earliest match listed here : lost to 0 ((FT)-Danubio) on 02-Jan-1900
FERRO CO POSITION
CA FENIX'S POSITION
Fenix Montevideo is in position 7 with 20 points from 13 matches. They are below Boston River who have 21 points and above River Plate who have 19 points.
Ca Fenix have scored 13 goals and conceded 14 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of -1 goals this season.
SANTAMARINA POSITION
CA RENTISTAS'S POSITION
Rentistas is in position 11 with 16 points from 13 matches. They are below Danubio who have 18 points and above Montevideo City who have 12 points.
Ca Rentistas have scored 16 goals and conceded 17 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of -1 goals this season.
FERRO CO BEST PLAYERS
No player analysis.
SANTAMARINA BEST PLAYERS
No player analysis.
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