After analysing all the data and compiling and comparing expert opinions on this Warta Poznan vs Wisla Krakow match, we are well convinced that Warta Poznan is in better form, better motivated and has proven in the past their ability to dominate this game against Wisla Krakow. The surebet prediction for this game is therefore a home win.
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We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a home win in this Warta Poznan vs Wisla Krakow match.
The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 64.01% probability for a Home Win outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 50.38% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 39.34% chance for a home win outcome.
This Warta Poznan vs Wisla Krakow match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all.
To find if the Home Win bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied Home Win bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.98 with an implied bookmaker probability of 50.51%.
The calculated Surebet probability for the Home Win outcome for this Warta Poznan vs Wisla Krakow match is 51.25%, meaning this bet is a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may gain expected value by 0.74%Expected Value, EV(Home Win), for a Home Win result for this Warta Poznan vs Wisla Krakow match is calculated as follows:
Let P(Home Win) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is;
P(Home Win) * 100* 1.98 where 1.98 are the decimal odds for this outcome.

Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a Home Win for Warta Poznan vs Wisla Krakow, EV(Home Win) to be 51.25% * 100 * 1.98, which translates to 52.71. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.




Given the historical results of these teams, it is most likely that at least 2 goals will be scored in this match. Regardless of the low odds, I bet you might want to form a multi bet with this over 1.5 Prediction for Warta Poznan vs Wisla Krakow. The over OR under 1.5 goals tips for this match is therefore clearly, over 1.5 goals.
We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a over 1.5 in this Warta Poznan vs Wisla Krakow match.
The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 74.05% probability for a OVER 1.5 outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 85.05% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 90.66% chance for a over 1.5 outcome.
This Warta Poznan vs Wisla Krakow match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all.
To find if the Over 1.5 bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied OVER 1.5 bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.25333333333333 with an implied bookmaker probability of 79.79%.
The calculated Surebet probability for the Over 1.5 outcome for this Warta Poznan vs Wisla Krakow match is 83.25%, meaning this bet is a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may gain expected value by 3.47%Expected Value, EV(OVER 1.5), for a OVER 1.5 result for this Warta Poznan vs Wisla Krakow match is calculated as follows:
Let P(OVER 1.5) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is;
P(OVER 1.5) * 100* 1.25333333333333 where 1.25333333333333 are the decimal odds for this outcome.

Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a OVER 1.5 for Warta Poznan vs Wisla Krakow, EV(OVER 1.5) to be 83.25% * 100 * 1.25, which translates to 87.59. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.