Since the Sportpesa mega jackpot was reset back to Ksh. 100 million, it has been increasing steadily up to now that it stands at Ksh 225 million. In a few weeks’ time, it will surpass the 234 million record that was broken by Samwel Abisai in 2018.
The big question is, why would nobody win the Sportpesa mega jackpot all this time? Are the people too dumb to correctly predict all the 17 matches? Do the mega jackpot prediction sites such as Surebet do a good job in giving good Sportpesa jackpot predictions?
It cannot be denied that the Sportpesa mega jackpot predictions have helped a number of betting fans win some cool bonuses. But why would they not predict all matches correctly and win the whole thing as soon as a new one is issued?
As an expert in this field, and as one who is a member of Sportpesa mega jackpot predictions at Surebet I will try to answer this question.
Weird Statistics for Mega jackpot matches
Insufficient data on Mega jackpot matches
Gambler’s Fallacy Impairs MJP prediction decisions
The hot hand Fallacy Impairs MJP prediction decisions
Inadequate investment on the MJP Prediction
1. Weird Statistics
When you look at the statistics of the matches listed on any Sportpesa mega jackpot prediction, one thing becomes clear; that the teams in every match has some weird statistics.
For instance, you find the home team is doing very well currently and could be having a winning streak of up to 10 matches. The away team could be a low ranked team who have performed marginally in the current season. All factors kept constant, the home team is supposed to win the mega jackpot game.
However, it is never as simple as that. You find that the home team has never won any of their head to head matches with the visiting weaker team for the last 10 years. Whenever thy meet, they either draw, or this supposedly weaker team wins.
Such weird statistics are actually the reason the Sportpesa management chooses the matches to include on the jackpot. To say the least, such statistics leave even the most learned statisticians without answers that can lead to 100% correct and sure mega jackpot predictions. This also explains why even the self-proclaimed sure Sportpesa mega jackpot prediction sites get it wrong because they fall into this statistics trap.
2. Insufficient data
While there are tons of data on the internet on matches that play in popular leagues, there sometimes isn’t enough data for matches often included on the Sportpesa mega jackpot.
It is not uncommon to find matches that come from little known leagues finding their way into the weekend mega jackpot. Such matches contain scanty data on the internet often without sensitive parts such as injuries or starting squads.
This then leads to blind betting since better informed decisions on predictions are not possible without enough data., This is yet another reason it has been hard to predict correctly all the 17 games of the mega jackpot.
If you are used to getting data from free sites such as Sofascore, you might be limiting your ability to put your hands on more data. Try to subscribe to sites that give more data at little cost such as the premium version of Soccerpunter.
Besides, look for data on the websites of the individual teams involved. If their websites are in foreign languages, you can use translation apps such as Google Translate.
3. Gambler’s Fallacy
According to Wikipedia, Gambler’s Fallacy, also known as Monte Carlo’s fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less frequently in the future (or vice versa). In situations where the outcome being observed is truly random and consists of independent trials of a random process, this belief is false. The fallacy can arise in many situations, but is most strongly associated with gambling, where it is common among players.
What makes this error of judgment even more potent are the weird statistics we talked about in #1 above. Take an example of two teams which in the past have drawn 7 times consecutively in their head to head encounters. It is human nature to fall into this Monte Carlo’s fallacy by thinking that since these teams have already drawn 7 times consecutively, it is very likely that they won’t draw when they meet next.
What you may forget at this point is that the outcome of the upcoming Sportpesa mega jackpot match does not depend on the past results. The outcomes of each encounter is independent and can lead to a draw with similar chances they would be if the team had not drawn 7 times in a row in the past.
This fallacy is a trap which even the so-called sure Sportpesa mega jackpot prediction sites or companies fall into when making their predictions.
Another example of the gambler’s fallacy is when a mega jackpot produces results with a particular pattern one week and assuming that the same pattern cannot manifest 2 or 3 weeks in a row. For instance if we had a mega jackpot whose 3 week results are:
1XX1111111121X111
11121X2122211111X
21X1112212112X211
Clearly, the home wins are over-represented in this mega jackpot results. It however does not mean that the chances of home wins next weekend will now be lower since we have had more of them in the past 3 mega jackpot results.
To put this fallacy into perspective, assume you are throwing a fair dice which have six sides named 3 being red and 3 being green. If you threw the dice 3 times and all you got were the red sides only, does that mean that the 4th throw will lead to a green side up? No. The chances of still getting a red side is exactly the same as those of getting a green each time you throw the die, whatever the number of times you repeat the event.
4. The hot hand Fallacy
Wikipedia yet again defines the hot hand fallacy as the purported phenomenon that a person who experiences a successful outcome has a greater chance of success in further attempts. The concept is often applied to sports and skill-based tasks in general and originates from basketball, whereas a shooter is allegedly more likely to score if their previous attempts were successful, i.e. while having "hot hands".
While previous success at a task can indeed change the psychological attitude and subsequent success rate of a player, researchers for many years did not find evidence for a "hot hand" in practice, dismissing it as fallacious. However, later research questioned whether the belief is indeed a fallacy.[1][2] Recent studies using modern statistical analysis show there is evidence for the "hot hand" in some sporting activities.
This judgmental error is related to the Gambler’s Fallacy above but differs due to its’ logic. The hot hand Fallacy is actually more logical and makes better sense therefore ending up much more into our thought process during the Sportpesa megajackpot prediction.
You see, if one team has been winning consistently, albeit being known to lose hard as well sometimes, you might be tempted to think that they are more likely to continue their winning streak well into the mega jackpot game. Assuming a stronger team like Chelsea has lost 3 matches in a row while a smaller team like Leicester has won 6 games in a row. When you come across this match in the NJP it is normal to think “this Leicester has been winning so much lately, they will win this coming MJP match as well”.
Now that is the Hot Hand fallacy that impairs you into thinking that. A strong team will, in the short to medium run, remain a strong team. Similarly, a weak team will remain a weak tem in the medium run, regardless of their immediate past performances.
To avoid the Hot Hand fallacy therefore, you need to judge a team according to their “strength” as opposed to their “recent performance”.
5. Inadequate funding
The chances of winning the Sportpesa mega jackpot is 1 in132 million. This means to be 100% sure of winning the MJP you have to place 132 million different predictions thereby using a mind-boggling 13.2 billion shillings. This therefore means that several seemingly rare things are actually more likely to happen y\to you than win the Sportpesa jackpot. These include being hit by thunder.
The point here is that if there is a way to reduce the number of possible outcomes it would be highly beneficial. Fortunately, such a maneuver exists in form of betting on double chances. Despite the fact that each extra bet of a double chance doubles your bet amount, it drastically reduces the number of possible outcomes left in your bet thereby increasing the chances of a multi bet. You can include up to 7 double chances in your mega jackpot prediction and it will cost you 12,800 shillings.
You will however increase your chances of winning a bigger bonus or the whole Sportpesa megajackpot by far.
The problem is that most of you are either not able or willing to invest more money in the mega jackpot.
Remember, betting is a form of investment although very risky.
Conclusion
If you can manage to get your head around the weird statistics that come with mega jackpot matches, make sure to gather as much data as possible for upcoming matches, avoid the psychological fallacies we humans fall often for and invest adequately in the Sportpesa mega jackpot predictions, you can immensely increase your chances of winning the MJP or some bonuses.
These impediments are the reason no one has won the Sportpesa mega jackpot even in this era of mega jackpot prediction sites. They too fall into traps like the fallacies and therefore come short.
If you lack the time and resources to get around the stated issues, you can use the Surebet mega jackpot predictions every weekend and win consistent bonuses by sending Ksh. 250/= only to 0700926210.
Leave a comment below and tell us if you have ever fallen into any of the above traps or obstacles of winning the mega jackpot.
Good luck.
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