ATLANTA UNITED vs TORONTO SURE PREDICTION
A detailed Atlanta United vs Toronto sure prediction with expert opinion, H2H matches, statistical analysis for this USA, Major League Soccer match on 19-Aug-2021
Atlanta United
DATE:
18 August 2021 at 02:00:00
Toronto
COUNTRY:
USA
LEAGUE
Major League Soccer
TIME:
2:00 AM
1X2 PREDICTION
HOME WIN:
58%
AVR. ODDS:
1.89
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
DRAW:
20%
AVR. ODDS:
3.72
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
AWAY WIN:
21%
AVR. ODDS:
3.88
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
EXPERT TIPS FOR THIS MATCH
To find if the Home Win bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied Home Win bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.89 with an implied bookmaker probability of 52.91%.
The calculated Surebet probability for the Home Win outcome for this Atlanta United vs Toronto match is 57.89%, meaning this bet is a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may gain expected value by 4.98%Expected Value, EV(Home Win), for a Home Win result for this Atlanta United vs Toronto match is calculated as follows: Let P(Home Win) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet.
See tickets:
Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(Home Win) * 100* 1.89 where 1.89 are the decimal odds for this outcome. Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a Home Win for Atlanta United vs Toronto, EV(Home Win) to be 57.89% * 100 * 1.89, which translates to 67.28. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.
We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a home win in this Atlanta United vs Toronto match. The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 52.48% probability for a Home Win outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 58.03% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 63.15% chance for a home win outcome. This Atlanta United vs Toronto match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all.
After analysing all the data and compiling and comparing expert opinions on this Atlanta United vs Toronto match, we are well convinced that Atlanta United is in better form, better motivated and has proven in the past their ability to dominate this game against Toronto. The surebet prediction for this game is therefore a home win.
Note that there might be even better tips you can bet on today if you can be bold enough to subscribe for VIP tips. Besides, you might want to check out the GG/NG tips given their ability to increase betting profits for many punters.
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GG/NG(BTTS) PREDICTION
GG(BTTS):
63%
AVR. ODDS:
1.61
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
NO GOAL:
AVR. ODDS:
36%
2.18
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 1.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 1.5:
40%
AVR. ODDS:
1.08
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
UNDER 1.5:
14%
AVR. ODDS:
3.82
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 2.5:
66%
AVR. ODDS:
1.66
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
UNDER 2.5:
AVR. ODDS:
VALUEBET?
33%
2.1
Not a Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 3.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 3.5:
44%
AVR. ODDS:
2.91
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
UNDER 3.5:
55%
AVR. ODDS:
1.57
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
MATCH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS
ATLANTA UNITED VS TORONTO LATEST HEAD TO HEAD MATCHES
Toronto and Atlanta have met 6 times recently since 08-Apr-2018. Below is a breakdown of those matches and the results. Note that these matches will play a big role in the Toronto vs Atlanta prediction.
19/10/20 - Toronto [1 : 0] Atlanta
31/10/19 - Atlanta [1 : 2] Toronto
27/06/19 - Toronto [3 : 2] Atlanta
05-Sep-2019 - Atlanta [2 : 0] Toronto
28/10/18 - Toronto [4 : 1] Atlanta
08-Apr-2018 - Atlanta [2 : 2] Toronto
ATLANTA UNITED LAST 10 MATCHES
Below are Atlanta United's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Atlanta won against Los Angeles (1-0) on 15/08/21
Then Columbus lost to Atlanta (2-3) on 08-Aug-2021
Montreal drew with Atlanta (2-2) on 08-May-2021
Not surprisingly Orlando won against Atlanta (3-2) on 31/07/21
Atlanta lost to Columbus (0-1) on 24/07/21
Cincinnati drew with Atlanta (1-1) on 22/07/21
Then Atlanta lost to New England (0-1) on 18/07/21
Nashville drew with Atlanta (2-2) on 07-Sep-2021
Chicago won against Atlanta (3-0) on 07-Apr-2021
In the earliest match listed here Atlanta drew with New York (0-0) on 27/06/21
RECENT MATCHES - AWAY TEAM
Below are Toronto's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Toronto lost to New England (1-2) on 15/08/21
Toronto drew with New York City (2-2) on 08-Aug-2021
Then Philadelphia won against Toronto (3-0) on 08-May-2021
Toronto drew with Nashville (1-1) on 08-Feb-2021
Chicago lost to Toronto (1-2) on 25/07/21
Then Toronto drew with New York (1-1) on 22/07/21
Toronto drew with Orlando (1-1) on 18/07/21
New England lost to Toronto (2-3) on 07-Aug-2021
Once more DC United won against Toronto (7-1) on 07-Apr-2021
Toronto lost to Cincinnati (0-2) on 27/06/21
ATLANTA UNITED'S POSITION
19 is in position 9 with points from 4 matches. They are below 19 who have points and above 19 who have points.
have scored 25 goals and conceded -3 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of 21 goals this season.
TORONTO'S POSITION
19 is in position 14 with points from 3 matches. They are below 17 who have points and above who have points.
Toronto have scored 40 goals and conceded -16 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of 15 goals this season.
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