ESTUDIANTES LP vs SAN LORENZO PREDICTION
A detailed Estudiantes Lp vs San Lorenzo NG sure prediction with expert opinion, H2H matches, statistical analysis for this Argentina, Primera Division, Torneo Inicialmatch on 27-Aug-2021
Estudiantes Lp
DATE:
26 August 2021 at 00:45:00
San Lorenzo
COUNTRY:
Argentina
LEAGUE
Primera Division, Torneo Inicial
TIME:
12:45 AM
1X2 PREDICTION
HOME WIN:
34%
AVR. ODDS:
1.91
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
DRAW:
28%
AVR. ODDS:
3.45
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
AWAY WIN:
38%
AVR. ODDS:
4.26
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
EXPERT TIPS FOR THIS MATCH
All 3 major Surebet prediction models have indicated a possible ng in this Estudiantes Lp vs San Lorenzo match. Poisson prediction model shows there is a 51.71% chance for the outcome while the ELO Ratings model shows a 53.98% chance for the same. Finally, 58.33% of the Monte Carlo simulation runs for this match resulted in ng.
This pretty much consolidates the prediction of a ng in this game. The odds for Ng outcome on major betting sites are, on average, 1.67 with an implied bookmaker probability of 59.88%.
Considering that the surebet probability for the Ng outcome for this Estudiantes Lp vs San Lorenzo match is 54.67%, then this bet is not a value bet.If you play this bet then you lose expected value by -5.21%.
The expected value for a NG prediction is denoted as EV(NG) and is calculated by multiplying the amount of stake by the odds and again by the probability of winning then subtracting the result of multiplying the stake and the probability of losing.
By using 100 as your sample stake, by calculating the EV as explained, we get the expected value for a NG in this Estudiantes Lp vs San Lorenzo match is 45.98 which is positive and therefore a good bet.
Estudiantes Lp and San Lorenzo might find it hard to score each other in this game. It may be much wiser if you steered clear of a goal-goal prediction and stuck with no-goal (NG prediction).
This is informed by the fact that both Estudiantes Lp and San Lorenzo have good defenses and at least one of them have demonstrated in the recent past weak defense that may see them goal-less by the end of this duel.
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GG/NG(BTTS) PREDICTION
GG(BTTS):
45%
AVR. ODDS:
2.08
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
NO GOAL:
AVR. ODDS:
55%
1.67
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 1.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 1.5:
40%
AVR. ODDS:
1.48
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
UNDER 1.5:
34%
AVR. ODDS:
2.85
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 2.5:
40%
AVR. ODDS:
2.26
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
UNDER 2.5:
AVR. ODDS:
VALUEBET?
60%
1.57
Not a Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 3.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 3.5:
19%
AVR. ODDS:
3.96
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
UNDER 3.5:
80%
AVR. ODDS:
1.17
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
MATCH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS
ESTUDIANTES LP VS SAN LORENZO LATEST HEAD TO HEAD MATCHES
Estudiantes La Plata and San Lorenzo have met 6 times recently since 10-Apr-2018. Below is a breakdown of those matches and the results. Note that these matches will play a big role in the Estudiantes La Plata vs San Lorenzo prediction.
30/03/21 - Estudiantes La Plata [0 : 2] San Lorenzo
12-Jan-2020 - Estudiantes La Plata [0 : 0] San Lorenzo
11-Aug-2020 - San Lorenzo [2 : 0] Estudiantes La Plata
26/01/20 - San Lorenzo [1 : 1] Estudiantes La Plata
12-Aug-2018 - San Lorenzo [1 : 1] Estudiantes La Plata
10-Apr-2018 - Estudiantes La Plata [1 : 3] San Lorenzo
ESTUDIANTES LP LAST 10 MATCHES
Below are Estudiantes Lp's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Banfield drew with Estudiantes La Plata (1-1) on 21/08/21
Then Estudiantes La Plata won against Boca Juniors (1-0) on 16/08/21
Central Cordoba lost to Estudiantes La Plata (1-2) on 08-Oct-2021
Not surprisingly Estudiantes La Plata won against Arsenal (4-0) on 08-Mar-2021
Newells won against Estudiantes La Plata (4-2) on 30/07/21
Estudiantes La Plata lost to Independiente (0-1) on 26/07/21
Then Sarmiento lost to Estudiantes La Plata (0-3) on 17/07/21
Estudiantes La Plata lost to Independiente (1-4) on 15/05/21
Argentinos Juniors won against Estudiantes La Plata (2-0) on 05-Sep-2021
In the earliest match listed here Estudiantes La Plata won against Platense (2-0) on 05-Apr-2021
RECENT MATCHES - AWAY TEAM
Below are San Lorenzo's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
San Lorenzo lost to Argentinos Juniors (0-1) on 23/08/21
Talleres Cordoba won against San Lorenzo (2-0) on 17/08/21
Then Union Santa Fe won against San Lorenzo (4-0) on 08-Jul-2021
San Lorenzo drew with Banfield (1-1) on 08-Feb-2021
Boca Juniors lost to San Lorenzo (0-2) on 28/07/21
Then San Lorenzo won against Central Cordoba (1-0) on 24/07/21
Arsenal drew with San Lorenzo (1-1) on 18/07/21
Huachipato lost to San Lorenzo (0-3) on 27/05/21
Once more 12 de Octubre lost to San Lorenzo (0-2) on 21/05/21
San Lorenzo lost to Rosario Central (1-2) on 13/05/21
ESTUDIANTES LP'S POSITION
Estudiantes La Plata is in position 3 with 13 points from 7 matches. They are below Racing who have 14 points and above Talleres Cordoba who have 13 points.
have scored 13 goals and conceded 7 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of 6 goals this season.
SAN LORENZO'S POSITION
San Lorenzo is in position 17 with 8 points from 7 matches. They are below Atletico Tucuman who have 8 points and above Huracan who have 7 points.
San Lorenzo have scored 5 goals and conceded 9 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of -4 goals this season.
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