OVER 1.5 PREDICTIONS

The over OR under 1.5 goals tips for this match is therefore clearly, over 1.5 goals. We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a over 1.5 in this Stabaek vs Kongsvinger Il match. The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 63.70% probability for a OVER 1.5 outcome.

The ELO Ratings model came through with a 72.88% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 79.87% chance for a over 1.5 outcome.

This Stabaek vs Kongsvinger Il match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all. To find if the Over 1.5 bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied OVER 1.5 bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same.

The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.02 with an implied bookmaker probability of 98.04%. The calculated Surebet probability for the Over 1.5 outcome for this Stabaek vs Kongsvinger Il match is 72.15%, meaning this bet is not a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may be about to lose expected value by -25.89%. Expected Value, EV(OVER 1.5), for a OVER 1.5 result for this Stabaek vs Kongsvinger Il match is calculated as follows:

Let P(OVER 1.5) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(OVER 1.5) * 100* 1.02 where 1.02 are the decimal odds for this outcome.

Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a OVER 1.5 for Stabaek vs Kongsvinger Il, EV(OVER 1.5) to be 72.15% * 100 * 1.02, which translates to 45.74. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.