HOME WIN TIPS
After analysing all the data and compiling and comparing expert opinions on this Moreirense vs Gd Chaves match, we are well convinced that Moreirense is in better form, better motivated and has proven in the past their ability to dominate this game against Gd Chaves. The surebet prediction for this game is therefore a home win.
Note that there might be even better tips you can bet on today if you can be bold enough to subscribe for VIP tips. Besides, you might want to check out the GG/NG tips given their ability to increase betting profits for many punters.

We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a home win in this Moreirense vs Gd Chaves match.
The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 45.35% probability for a Home Win outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 49.15% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 52.36% chance for a home win outcome.

This Moreirense vs Gd Chaves match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all.

To find if the Home Win bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied Home Win bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.61 with an implied bookmaker probability of 62.11%.

The calculated Surebet probability for the Home Win outcome for this Moreirense vs Gd Chaves match is 48.96%, meaning this bet is not a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may be about to lose expected value by -13.16%.
Expected Value, EV(Home Win), for a Home Win result for this Moreirense vs Gd Chaves match is calculated as follows:
Let P(Home Win) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is;
P(Home Win) * 100* 1.61 where 1.61 are the decimal odds for this outcome.

Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a Home Win for Moreirense vs Gd Chaves, EV(Home Win) to be 48.96% * 100 * 1.61, which translates to 27.77. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.
DRAW TIPS




AWAY WIN TIPS




GG TIPS




NG TIPS




OVER 1.5 TIPS
Given the historical results of these teams, it is most likely that at least 2 goals will be scored in this match. Regardless of the low odds, I bet you might want to form a multi bet with this over 1.5 Prediction for Moreirense vs Gd Chaves. The over OR under 1.5 goals tips for this match is therefore clearly, over 1.5 goals.

We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a over 1.5 in this Moreirense vs Gd Chaves match.

The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 68.34% probability for a OVER 1.5 outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 75.31% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 80.78% chance for a over 1.5 outcome.

This Moreirense vs Gd Chaves match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all.

To find if the Over 1.5 bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied OVER 1.5 bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.14666666666667 with an implied bookmaker probability of 87.21%.

The calculated Surebet probability for the Over 1.5 outcome for this Moreirense vs Gd Chaves match is 74.81%, meaning this bet is not a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may be about to lose expected value by -12.40%.
Expected Value, EV(OVER 1.5), for a OVER 1.5 result for this Moreirense vs Gd Chaves match is calculated as follows:
Let P(OVER 1.5) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is;
P(OVER 1.5) * 100* 1.14666666666667 where 1.14666666666667 are the decimal odds for this outcome.

Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a OVER 1.5 for Moreirense vs Gd Chaves, EV(OVER 1.5) to be 74.81% * 100 * 1.14, which translates to 60.58. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.